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Indicator Assessment
Trend in flowering date of winter wheat
Note: This figure shows the rate of change of the flowering date for winter wheat. The annual rate of change of the flowering date represents the trend coefficient for long-term changes in the occurrence of flowering of winter wheat in Europe. For example, a value -0.6 indicates that in last 30 years the winter wheat flowering date has been anticipated on average by 0.6 days per year (6 days in 10 years). The flowering date is derived from crop growth models simulating crop development of winter wheat as a function of the temperature sum. The simulation is based on the JRC-MARS gridded meteorological data at 25 km resolution.
Past trends
Changes in the phenological phases of several perennial crops in Europe, such as advances in the start of the growing season of fruit trees (2.3 days/decade), cherry tree blossom (2.0 days/decade) and apple tree blossom (2.2 days/decade), in line with increases of up to 1.4 °C in mean annual air temperature, were observed in Germany during 1961–2000 [i]. Sowing or planting dates of several agricultural crops have advanced; for example, for oats in Germany (1959–2009), sowing has advanced by 0.2 days/decade, flowering by 1.9 days/decade, maturity by 3.3 days/decade and harvest by 2.1 days/decade [ii]. This indicates that factors other than temperature may be affecting sowing and harvesting dates, e.g. soil workability and grain moisture for harvesting.
An analysis of the modelled flowering date for winter wheat in Europe between 1985 and 2014 shows a general and clear increasing trend, which is most pronounced in north-western Europe (Figure 1). In large parts of Europe, the modelled flowering date has advanced by two to four days/decade. This modelled advance in flowering date probably exceeds what is observed in reality, as a longer growth duration will alter plants’ responses to day length and farmers’ choices of cultivars, reducing the overall response.
Projections
With the projected warming of the climate in Europe, further reductions in the number of days required for flowering and to reach maturity in cereals may be expected throughout Europe [iii]. Since many plants (including cereals) in Europe require long days to flower, the effect of warming on the date of flowering is smaller than would otherwise be expected. The flowering date for winter wheat was projected to show the greatest advance in western parts of Europe, with an advance of up to two weeks by 2050. The projected advance in the date of reaching maturity is greater than the advance in flowering date, leading to a shortening of the grain-filling period, which will negatively affect yields. One of the main adaptation options to cope with the shortening of crop growth phases is choosing crop cultivars that have higher thermal requirements, as this will reduce the negative yield effects of a shorter growth duration. In practice, this needs to be balanced against the need to avoid periods of high temperature stresses and drought. Breeding for crop cultivars with optimal timing of crop phenological phases is therefore a critical adaptation option [iv].
[i] Frank-M Chmielewski, Antje Müller, and Ekko Bruns, ‘Climate Changes and Trends in Phenology of Fruit Trees and Field Crops in Germany, 1961-2000’,Agricultural and Forest Meteorology 121, no. 1–2 (January 2004): 69–78, doi:10.1016/S0168-1923(03)00161-8.
[ii] S. Siebert and F. Ewert, ‘Spatio-Temporal Patterns of Phenological Development in Germany in Relation to Temperature and Day Length’,Agricultural and Forest Meteorology 152 (January 2012): 44–57, doi:10.1016/j.agrformet.2011.08.007.
[iii] J.E. Olesen et al., ‘Changes in Time of Sowing, Flowering and Maturity of Cereals in Europe under Climate Change’,Food Additives and Contaminants: Part A 29, no. 10 (2012): 1527–42, doi:10.1080/19440049.2012.712060.
[iv] M. A. Semenov et al., ‘Adapting Wheat in Europe for Climate Change’,Journal of Cereal Science, Cereal Science for Food Security,Nutrition and Sustainability, 59, no. 3 (May 2014): 245–56, doi:10.1016/j.jcs.2014.01.006.
In April 2013, the European Commission (EC) presented the EU Adaptation Strategy Package. This package consists of the EU Strategy on adaptation to climate change (COM/2013/216 final) and a number of supporting documents. The overall aim of the EU Adaptation Strategy is to contribute to a more climate-resilient Europe.
One of the objectives of the EU Adaptation Strategy is Better informed decision-making, which will be achieved by bridging the knowledge gap and further developing the European climate adaptation platform (Climate-ADAPT) as the ‘one-stop shop’ for adaptation information in Europe. Climate-ADAPT has been developed jointly by the EC and the EEA to share knowledge on (1) observed and projected climate change and its impacts on environmental and social systems and on human health, (2) relevant research, (3) EU, transnational, national and subnational adaptation strategies and plans, and (4) adaptation case studies.
Further objectives include Promoting adaptation in key vulnerable sectors through climate-proofing EU sector policies and Promoting action by Member States. Most EU Member States have already adopted national adaptation strategies and many have also prepared action plans on climate change adaptation. The EC also supports adaptation in cities through the Covenant of Mayors for Climate and Energy initiative.
In September 2016, the EC presented an indicative roadmap for the evaluation of the EU Adaptation Strategy by 2018.
In November 2013, the European Parliament and the European Council adopted the 7th EU Environment Action Programme (7th EAP) to 2020, ‘Living well, within the limits of our planet’. The 7th EAP is intended to help guide EU action on environment and climate change up to and beyond 2020. It highlights that ‘Action to mitigate and adapt to climate change will increase the resilience of the Union’s economy and society, while stimulating innovation and protecting the Union’s natural resources.’ Consequently, several priority objectives of the 7th EAP refer to climate change adaptation.
No targets have been specified.
The map was produced based on the Agri4Cast database developed by the Joint Research Centre (JRC). The database contains meteorological data at 25 kilometres grid level, interpolated from meteorological station data. The interpolation is performed taking into account only arable land that is potentially suitable for crop growth. Crop phenology was simulated with the WOFOST (WOrld FOod STudies) model. The WOFOST model is maintained and further developed by Wageningen Environmental Research (Alterra) in co-operation with the Plant Production Systems Group of Wageningen University & Research and the Agri4Cast unit of the Joint Research Centre.
Not applicable
No methodology references available.
Not applicable
The effects of climate change on the growing season and crop phenology can be monitored directly, partly through remote sensing of the growing season and partly through monitoring of specific phenological events such as flowering. There is no common monitoring network for crop phenology in Europe, and therefore data on crop phenology have to be based on various national recordings, often from agronomic experiments.
The projections of climate change impacts and adaptation in agriculture rely heavily on modelling, and it needs to be recognised that there is often a chain of uncertainty involved in the projections, which range from emissions scenarios, through climate modelling and downscaling, to assessments of impacts using an impact model The extent of all these uncertainties is rarely quantified, even though some studies have assessed uncertainties related to individual components. The crop modelling community has only recently started addressing uncertainties related to modelling impacts of climate change on crop yield and the effect of possible adaptation options. Recently, the effects of extreme climate events have also been included in impact assessments, but other effects such as those related to biotic hazards (e.g. pests and diseases) still need to be explored.
No uncertainty has been specified
For references, please go to https://www.eea.europa.eu/data-and-maps/indicators/timing-of-the-cycle-of-2/assessment or scan the QR code.
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