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Global mean temperature between 2013 and 2023 was 1.19 to 1.22°C warmer than the pre-industrial level, which makes it the warmest decade on record. European land temperatures have increased even faster over the same period by 2.12 to 2.19°C, depending on the dataset used. The UNFCCC member countries have committed to limiting global temperature increase to well below 2°C above the pre-industrial level and aim to limit the increase to 1.5°C. Without drastic cuts in global greenhouse gas emissions, the 2°C limit will already be exceeded before 2050.
Figure 1. Global (above) and European (below) annual average near-surface temperature anomalies relative to the pre-industrial period 1850-1900
Trends in global temperature are an important indicator of the magnitude of climate change and its potential impacts. Global annual near surface temperature (measured at approximately 2 meters above surface) has been rising steadily since the end of the 19th century. The rate of increase has been particularly high since the 1970s at about 0.2°C per decade. During this period, global temperature has risen faster than in any other 50-year period over at least 2,000 years , with WMO confirming that 2023 was the warmest year on record.
To prevent serious environmental, economic and societal impacts of climate change, all signatories to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) committed to limiting global temperature increase to well below 2°C above pre-industrial levels by 2050. Signatories further agreed to pursue efforts limiting the increase to 1.5°C in the Paris Agreement. The observed warming up to now already amounts to more than half of the maximum 2°C increase that would be compatible with this.
Climate modelling has been used to estimate future climate change for different emissions scenarios and socio-economic pathways underlying these scenarios (Shared Socio-economic Pathways, SSP ). Without significant efforts to curtail emissions, the increase in global temperature will continue rapidly, and even accelerate.
Global temperatures are projected to increase by 2.1 to 3.5°C above pre-industrial levels under SSP2-4.5 and 3.3 to 5.7°C under SSP5-8.5 by the end of the 21st century. The only scenarios with a chance to stay within the limits established by the Paris Agreement are SSP1-1.9 with projected warming of 1.0 to 1.8°C and SSP1-2.6 with ranges between 1.3 to 2.4°C until the end of the 21st century compared to pre-industrial levels. These scenarios assume a drastic reduction in emissions in the coming decades and the decline of CO2 emissions to zero and subsequently negative net emissions around the year 2050 (scenario SSP1-1.9) or around 2080 (scenario SSP1-2.6).
Figure 2. Observed annual mean temperature trend from 1960 to 2023 (left panel) and projected 21st century temperature change under different SSP scenarios (right panels) in Europe
Europe is warming faster than the global average. The mean annual temperature over European land areas in the last decade was 2.12 to 2.19°C warmer than during the pre-industrial period. The year 2023 was the second warmest in Europe since instrumental records began, according to all datasets used. The warmest year on record in Europe is 2020, with the range of anomaly between 2.53 ºC and 2.71 ºC above pre-industrial levels. Particularly high warming was observed over eastern Europe, Scandinavia and the eastern part of Iberian Peninsula.
Projections from the CMIP6 initiative suggest that temperatures across European land areas will continue to increase throughout this century at a higher rate than the global average. Land temperatures in Europe are projected to increase further by 1.2 to 3.4° under the SSP1-2.6 scenario and by 4.1 to 8.5°C under the SSP5-8.5 scenario (by 2071-2100, compared to 1981-2010). The highest level of warming is projected across north-eastern Europe, northern Scandinavia and inland areas of Mediterranean countries. The lowest warming is expected in western Europe, especially in the United Kingdom, Ireland, western France, Benelux countries and Denmark.