Following six years of steady growth in greenhouse gas emissions from the EU’s transport sector, transport emissions dropped substantially in 2020 because of reduced activity during the COVID-19 pandemic. Preliminary estimates of emissions in 2021 indicate a rebound of 8.6% in transport, followed by further growth of 2.7% in 2022. National projections compiled by the European Environment Agency (EEA) suggest that, even with measures currently planned in the Member States, domestic transport emissions will only drop below their 1990 level in 2032. International transport emissions (aviation and maritime) are projected to continue increasing.

Figure 1. Greenhouse gas emissions from transport in Europe
YearHistorical greenhouse gas emissionsProjections 'with existing measures'Projections 'with additional measures'
1990672
1991681
1992703
1993706
1994712
1995725
1996747
1997757
1998786
1999803
2000798
2001812
2002821
2003831
2004849
2005847
2006855
2007864
2008845
2009823
2010818
2011808
2012779
2013773
2014778
2015793
2016811
2017825
2018826
2019833
2020720
2021782764762
2022803771766
2023777768
2024778764
2025774756
2026761735
2027746712
2028731688
2029716665
2030699639
2031685621
2032672603
2033658585
2034643568
2035628549
2036612527
2037598507
2038584489
2039571471
2040559455

The EU’s domestic GHG emissions from transport steadily increased from 2013 until the disruption of the Covid-19 pandemic, largely due to growth in passenger transport and inland freight volumes. Between 2019 and 2020, GHG emissions from transport fell by 13.5% and rebounded from the effects of the pandemic in 2021 with a growth of 8.6%. In 2022, according to preliminary estimates, these emissions continued their upward trend by 2.7%.

According to their national projections, Member States foresee a continued increase in transport emissions in the coming years. Without the implementation of additional measures, emissions are expected to grow through 2024. The transport-related measures currently planned, but not yet implemented, by Member States are projected to reverse this trend, with emissions peaking this year.

Looking towards 2030, current policies and measures would deliver a GHG emission reduction from transport that remains 4% above 1990 levels. With additional measures, emissions from transport in 2030 would reach a level 5% below 1990 levels. Most planned policies and measures in the transport sector focus on promoting low-carbon fuels or electric cars, as well as encouraging a modal shift to public transport.

Figure 2. Greenhouse gas emissions from transport in the EU, by transport mode and scenario
YearInternational aviationEU-27 projections WEM International aviationEU-27 projections WAM International aviationInternational maritime transportEU-27 projections WEM International maritime transportEU-27 projections WAM International maritime transportDomestic AviationEU-27 projections WEM Domestic AviationEU-27 projections WAM Domestic AviationRoad transportEU-27 projections WEM Road TransportationEU-27 projections WAM Road TransportationDomestic navigationEU-27 projections WEM Domestic NavigationEU-27 projections WAM Domestic NavigationRailwaysEU-27 projections WEM RailwaysEU-27 projections WAM Railways
1990100100100100100100
199198.20998.26899.831101.479103.4488.816
1992105.14799.664101.939105.071102.59387.561
1993110.306100.364100.302106.0197.42283.329
1994115.236100.732103.494106.95198.19379.633
1995121.449100.499111.944108.93794.18677.046
1996126.92107.188120.519112.15698.72472.661
1997132.019116.156127.888113.80496.61570.347
1998139.32121.659134.091118.268100.98866.715
1999151.37117.843140.636121.01698.18261.881
2000157.161125.43146.329120.47787.50763.454
2001155.778129.908141.912122.94189.69256.124
2002151.366135.909138.917124.45888.3456.162
2003157.982138.664137.801125.96690.58755.391
2004167.216146.53140.824128.6991.39654.524
2005177.63150.534141.485128.46690.53948.963
2006186.998161.108141.127129.75192.0747.979
2007195.628168.107144.609131.27287.64949.891
2008198.519165.979141.435128.30284.98448.021
2009182.499147.571133.935125.21485.16442.415
2010185.53148.476133.65124.35385.68842.294
2011190.095147.323132.097123.17977.5942.53
2012188.014137.176122.421118.85473.94641.117
2013189.771129.478112.278118.26567.64738.607
2014193.484125.843110.53119.52364.20335.365
2015200.619126.486111.19121.83567.65235.389
2016212.715130.127115.18124.47771.41334.366
2017229.515131.884118.39126.48475.81833.802
2018240.968134.981123.622126.50979.48232.284
2019245.808133.768126.198127.4182.59232.015
2020103.72118.52466.98110.89275.43228.528
2021128.941137.742126.9126.412128.48128.4882.99585.65985.611120.615117.643117.21773.54274.22674.20829.23428.76128.331
2022189.662164.876150.196134.89130.924130.823103.931101.641118.34117.58776.32976.62129.70528.715
2023186.886169.214132.878132.675121.789117.258118.809117.36578.31678.92130.7529.932
2024202.763182.749134.764134.457137.181130.406118.564116.45980.36781.28531.7430.304
2025215.79194.941136.622136.212151.254142.239117.518114.75382.37783.60732.53730.42
2026218.316195.872136.601135.864152.388142.878115.396111.46282.53983.25932.38229.784
2027220.864198.109136.578135.515153.517143.51112.963107.75682.57682.80831.43528.403
2028222.984199.986136.553135.164154.62144.118110.53103.95782.74282.48531.31227.835
2029225.085201.842136.527134.811155.717144.72108.152100.22482.92882.18230.99727.087
2030227.379205.046136.509134.467156.809145.317105.35396.10983.12481.91130.84926.523
2031229.14204.52136.884134.822156.22144.584103.14493.21882.50981.29531.00226.422
2032230.809205.215137.259135.176155.63143.843101.06990.41181.93480.72231.37526.502
2033232.459205.895137.634135.531155.041143.10598.79287.55581.36180.15231.73126.588
2034234.091206.559138.01135.887154.451142.36596.48584.72480.7979.58432.0826.668
2035235.707208.506138.387136.244153.862141.62694.02881.69480.21878.97432.41426.718
2036237.252208.265138.851136.683154.879142.41891.43278.25280.38379.04832.67426.603
2037238.59209.149139.297137.103155.896143.21189.08675.05280.54979.12932.88226.417
2038239.913210.021139.744137.523156.914144.00486.87272.02180.7279.22133.11726.237
2039241.22210.879140.191137.944157.933144.79884.7869.20580.89379.31833.34626.032
2040242.51212.3140.638138.366158.952145.59482.74966.53681.07279.42433.58625.821

In addition to domestic transport, international aviation and international maritime sectors also contribute to transport-related emissions. Among the domestic transport categories, emissions from domestic navigation, domestic aviation and railway have decreased since 1990 and are projected to remain relatively stable in the coming years.

Road transport constitutes the highest proportion of overall transport emissions - emitting 76% of all EU’s transport GHG emissions (including domestic transport and international bunkers) in 2021. As a majority of existing and planned measures in the Member States focus on road transport, this share is expected to decrease as road transport decarbonises faster than other transport modes. The largest increases up to 2030 are projected in the aviation sector, followed by international maritime transport, as they are not prioritised by national policies. These sub-sectors are therefore expected to constitute a higher proportion of transport sector emissions in the coming years.

Aviation was particularly affected by the COVID-19 pandemic, with international aviation emissions 58% lower in 2020 than in 2019. However, the drop in emissions due to the pandemic was temporary. Air traffic activity rose by 24% in 2021 and further accelerated in 2022, with a 48% increase. Flight numbers are expected to return to 2019 levels by 2025 at the earliest.