Greenhouse gas emissions from transport in Europe

Following six years of steady growth in greenhouse gas emissions from the EU’s transport sector, transport emissions dropped substantially in 2020 because of reduced activity during the COVID-19 pandemic. Preliminary estimates of emissions in 2021 indicate a rebound of 8.6% in transport, followed by further growth of 2.7% in 2022. National projections compiled by the European Environment Agency (EEA) suggest that, even with measures currently planned in the Member States, domestic transport emissions will only drop below their 1990 level in 2032. International transport emissions (aviation and maritime) are projected to continue increasing.

The EU’s domestic GHG emissions from transport steadily increased from 2013 until the disruption of the Covid-19 pandemic, largely due to growth in passenger transport and inland freight volumes. Between 2019 and 2020, GHG emissions from transport fell by 13.5% and rebounded from the effects of the pandemic in 2021 with a growth of 8.6%. In 2022, according to preliminary estimates, these emissions continued their upward trend by 2.7%.

According to their national projections, Member States foresee a continued increase in transport emissions in the coming years. Without the implementation of additional measures, emissions are expected to grow through 2024. The transport-related measures currently planned, but not yet implemented, by Member States are projected to reverse this trend, with emissions peaking this year.

Looking towards 2030, current policies and measures would deliver a GHG emission reduction from transport that remains 4% above 1990 levels. With additional measures, emissions from transport in 2030 would reach a level 5% below 1990 levels. Most planned policies and measures in the transport sector focus on promoting low-carbon fuels or electric cars, as well as encouraging a modal shift to public transport.

In addition to domestic transport, international aviation and international maritime sectors also contribute to transport-related emissions. Among the domestic transport categories, emissions from domestic navigation, domestic aviation and railway have decreased since 1990 and are projected to remain relatively stable in the coming years.

Road transport constitutes the highest proportion of overall transport emissions - emitting 76% of all EU’s transport GHG emissions (including domestic transport and international bunkers) in 2021. As a majority of existing and planned measures in the Member States focus on road transport, this share is expected to decrease as road transport decarbonises faster than other transport modes. The largest increases up to 2030 are projected in the aviation sector, followed by international maritime transport, as they are not prioritised by national policies. These sub-sectors are therefore expected to constitute a higher proportion of transport sector emissions in the coming years.

Aviation was particularly affected by the COVID-19 pandemic, with international aviation emissions 58% lower in 2020 than in 2019. However, the drop in emissions due to the pandemic was temporary. Air traffic activity rose by 24% in 2021 and further accelerated in 2022, with a 48% increase. Flight numbers are expected to return to 2019 levels by 2025 at the earliest.

Supporting information

Definition

This indicator shows historical greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions from the transport sector, as well as emissions projected up to 2035 under scenarios in which policies currently in place (‘with existing measures’) and planned (‘with additional measures’) in the EU Member States (EU-27) are implemented. The disaggregated level assessment illustrates trends and projections in key transport sub-sectors.

It covers IPCC source categories 1.A.3, 1.D.1.a and 1.D.1.b (as used in GHG emission inventories).

Methodology

Methodology for indicator calculation

The indicator uses information from three EEA data sets: the greenhouse gas emissions inventory, approximated estimates of greenhouse gas emissions and greenhouse gas emissions projections.

The aggregated level assessment uses historical and projected GHG emissions for the transport sector as a whole: this is a sum of IPCC categories 1.A.3 (transport), 1.D.1.a (international aviation) and 1.D.1.b (international maritime transport).

The disaggregated level assessment uses historical and projected GHG emissions for various transport modes: road transport (IPCC category 1.A.3.b), railway transport (1.A.3.c), domestic navigation (1.A.3.d), international maritime transport (1.D.1.b) and aviation (1.A.3.a and 1.D.1.a).

Projections cover the period 2015-2035 (the historic years in the projections show values used for calibrating the projection). Two distinct projection scenarios are developed by the Member States, based on different levels of implementation of climate mitigation policies: the ‘with existing measures’ scenario includes policies already adopted, while the ‘with additional measures’ scenario includes planned policies and national targets.

Methodology for gap filling

No methodology for gap filling has been specified.

Methodology references

No methodology references available.

Policy/environmental relevance

Context description

The European Green Deal (COM(2019) 640 final) sets out the aim to achieve a carbon neutral EU by 2050. This requires the decarbonisation of all sectors. In its proposal for the Climate Law (COM(2020) 80 final), the European Commission proposed to increase the intermediate GHG emission reduction target for 2030 to 55%, accepted by the European Council at the end of 2020.

In December 2020, the Commission published ‘Sustainable and Smart Mobility Strategy’ (COM(2020) 789 final), laying out its vision to ensure that the EU transport system can achieve a green transformation.

The transport sector is responsible for nearly a quarter of Europe’s greenhouse gas emissions. In addition, this sector has proven difficult to decarbonise, and has not shown the same decreases in GHG emissions since 1990 as other sectors. Therefore, it is important to track this sector in detail and project changes in GHG emissions based on the reductions possible with policy measures that have already been adopted or are planned in the EU Member States.

In the implementation of the 2030 climate and energy framework, commercial aviation (all airlines operating in Europe) is covered by the EU Emissions Trading Scheme, while the rest of the transport sector (excluding international shipping) is covered by the Effort Sharing Regulation. The indicator allows the contributions of the transport sector to meeting targets set out in both these pieces of legislation to be assessed in detail.

Targets

Targets not defined for this indicator.

Metadata

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TypologyUN SDGsUnit of measureFrequency of dissemination

Greenhouse gas emissions from transport in Europe

Figure 1. Greenhouse gas emissions from transport in Europe

Figure 2. Greenhouse gas emissions from transport in the EU, by transport mode and scenario

Supporting information

Methodology for indicator calculation

Methodology for gap filling

Methodology references

Context description

Targets

Related policy documents

Methodology uncertainty

Data sets uncertainty

Rationale uncertainty

Metadata

References and footnotes