Total per capita waste generation remained near stable in the European Union between 2010 and 2022. Waste generation historically follows trends in economic growth, e.g. during the 2020 economic slowdown and recovery thereafter. The EU aims to signficantly decrease its total waste generation by 2030. Although the observed stability and decoupling of waste generation from economic growth is encouraging, the latest data indicates that the link between economic growth and waste generation remains. Therefore, it is unlikely that waste generation will substantially decrease by 2030.

Figure 1. Waste generation per capita in the EU-27

For a long time, the EU has set a policy objective to reduce waste though prevention, which is the first step of the waste hierarchy laid down in the Waste Framework Directive. The circular economy and zero pollution ambition of the EU is to significantly reduce total waste by 2030.

Total waste generation per capita decreased very slightly by 0.5% (decrease of 26 kg/capita) in the EU-27 between 2010 and 2022 and reach 5 tonnes per capita in 2022. A sharp decrease occurred in 2018-2020, following an increase in 2016-2018, due to the COVID-19 pandemic and economic slowdown. Waste generation has bounced back since, with an increase of 4% (174 kg/capita) between 2020 and 2022.

Total waste generation remained stable, yet underlying waste streams show variations, modifying the composition. Sorting residues almost doubled from 2010 to 2022 (indicating increases in collection of recyclables), while excavated soils and mineral waste from construction and demolition increased by more than 100kg/capita. The stability of the total waste is mainly due to a high decrease in generation of other mineral waste by around 400kg/capita in the reporting time period, due to a slowdown of mining activities in Europe.

Major mineral wastes (hard rocks, concrete, soil and others) mainly produced in mining and construction sectors, feature in large quantities in relation to other waste types. They usually represent less of an environmental concern because of their inert nature. If excluded from the totals, the remaining and more environmentally significant waste streams increased by 3.3% between 2010 and 2022, a rise of 57 kg/capita.

The main driver for trends in total waste volumes is considered to be economic growth, with gross domestic product (GDP) the most common parameter used to track the economy’s size. During 2010-2022, the EU’s per capita GDP increased in real (deflated) terms by almost 19%. While waste generation remained stable in the same period, it followed overall trends in GDP development (the drop in 2020), indicating a relative decoupling of waste generation from economic growth.

Latest data indicates that a link remains between waste generation and economic growth, albeit weaker. Therefore, it seems unlikely that the per capita total waste generation will significantly decrease by 2030. The only significant decrease observed (around 8%) in waste generation is very recent (2018-2020) and coincided with negative GDP growth rates. Waste generation has historically followed GDP growth closely and GDP growth rates have been positive since 2020. The European Central Bank projects this to remain as such in the coming years. Additional effort on implementing waste prevention is needed to significantly waste generation by 2030.

Figure 2. Generation of waste per capita and by European country (2010 and 2022)

Generation of waste per capita and by European country (2010 and 2022)

On average, 5 tonnes of total waste was generated per EU citizen in 2022, almost identical to the per capita generation in 2010. This average masks large country differences both in total waste volumes per capita and in waste generation trends.

Amounts generated for EU Member States in 2022 range from less than 1.35 tonnes per capita in Latvia to 20 tonnes per capita in Finland. Other European countries range from 1 tonne in North Macedonia to 26 tonnes in Serbia. Extreme numbers and differences can be affected by specific country situations and partly reflect variant structures of countries’ economies. In 2022, 12 EU Member States (14 of 32 countries with available data) were above the EU average for 2022.

Trends over time also show a mixed picture between countries. The total waste generated per capita increased in 18 Member States (22 of the 32 countries with available data). The largest relative decrease within the EU was observed in Greece and the largest relative increase in Bulgaria. The highest increase overall was reported in Serbia.