Source: Eye Ubiquitous
INTRODUCTION |
Population is a key element in the human impact on the environment. Population growth is often held to be the root cause of environmental problems, but the interactions between population, economic development and environmental change are too complex to support this conclusion. Other important factors, such as distributional patterns, migration and living standards, have a major role affecting the impact of population on natural resources and the environment.
Population growth |
In 1992 the world population was 5.5 billion and, on the basis of UN projections, is expected to increase by 1 billion by the year 2000. World population growth between 1950 and 1992 added to the planet more people (3 billion) than the total number of people who inhabited the planet in 1950 (2.5 billion). This exponential increase is still occurring, although the rate of population growth has fallen since 1970 from 2.1 to 1.7 per cent. In fact the population growth rate has not fallen as fast as the population base has grown. Thus, the global population increases by 240 000 a day and by over 90 million every year. This increase is mainly in Asia, Africa and Latin America (Figure 12.1). The very young age structure in these countries contrasts with the increasing old-age dependency ratio in developed countries, and will maintain continued vast population growth even if fertility rates drop significantly (Figure 12.2).
The absolute increase in population during the last few decades has placed a greater demand on natural resources worldwide. However, to understand the impact of population on the environment it is essential to consider the distribution of population growth as well as its absolute numbers. The impact of people on the environment depends in fact on the regional concentration and population density, as well as on the level of economic development and per capita consumption of natural resources in the different world regions.
The European population reached about 680 million people in 1990, which represented 12.8 per cent of the world's population. Comparable population estimates for Europe, as defined in this report, are not available for the preceding years. Historical trends can be examined by using UN statistics which provide historical data for Europe (excluding the European part of the former USSR) and for all the former USSR. According to the UN definition, Europe's share of world population declined from 16 per cent in 1950 to 9 per cent in 1990. UN projections show a further decline to 6 per cent by 2025 (UN, 1993). Between 1950 and 1990 the former USSR's share of world population declined from 7 to 5 per cent and is expected to decline further to 4 per cent by 2025.
After a rapid increase in the nineteenth century and a slower growth rate in the first part of the twentieth century, Europe's own population has remained relatively steady. European population, excluding the European part of the former USSR, reached about 509 million in 1990 (398 million in 1970). Including all of the former USSR, this figure was 779 million people in 1990 (692 million in 1970). The total population for Europe and the former USSR is projected to reach 871.6 million in 1995 and 966.8 million in 2025. However, there are considerable variations in population growth within Europe. Population in EU countries is projected to rise from 351.6 million in 1995 to 368.0 million in 2025 (an increase of 4.45 per cent), whereas for the non-EU part of Europe (including the whole former USSR) population is projected to rise from 519.9 million to 598.8 million in the same period (an increase of 13.17 per cent).
Distribution and density |
Regional diversities in European population trends are shown in Table 12.1, which compares vital rates across European regions, defined according to the UN classification, between 1980 and 1985 and between 1985 and 1990. Growth rates differed markedly between 1980 and 1985, with low growth rates in Northern and Western Europe (respectively 0.2 and 0.1 per cent) and high growth rates in Eastern and Southern Europe (both at 0.5 per cent). A major change in regional patterns is represented by the convergence of regional growth rates between 1985 and 1990, ranging between 0.3 and 0.5 per cent: a combined effect of increased international migration towards Western and Northern European countries and decreased birth rate in Eastern and Southern European countries.
Compared with other world regions, Europe (with the exception of the former USSR) is very densely populated. However, density patterns vary across European countries, as illustrated in Map 12.1.
The impact of population growth on the environment can be better understood in combination with such trends as mobility and urbanisation. Movements of people can be both cause and effect of environmental change. Degraded environmental conditions can prompt emigration, while the influx of new people can strain a local carrying capacity. In Europe, the most manifest example of how migration has changed the environment was the rapid urbanisation which started in the eighteenth century, as illustrated in Chapter 10.
Migration inside Europe has historically been characterised by long-term movements from less developed to more prosperous regions. In the EU there was, however, a virtual standstill in inter-regional migration in the 1970s and early 1980s, and there are as yet no signs of a revival. Amongst EU countries, with the exception of Ireland, net migration from weaker regions has been close to zero and in some cases even slightly negative over the second half of the 1980s (CEC, 1991). Eastern Europe has experienced considerable migration in the post-war period. Until 1989, Latvia had the highest population growth in all of Europe, due to movements from Russia, Belarus and Ukraine. Most immigration in Latvia has been to urban areas which is leading to environmental conflicts, while the natural population growth rate continually decreased from the late 1950s to the 1980s (Latvia Environmental Protection Committee, 1992).
A new wave of migration between Eastern and Western Europe is now taking place as a result of political change, the main flow entering West Germany. Flows from Eastern to Western Germany are expected to continue at an estimated rate of 200 000 people a year, implying an annual loss to the Eastern German population of 1.25 per cent up to the middle of the 1990s (CEC, 1991).
Internal migration in Europe is also being progressively replaced by immigration from southern countries such as Algeria, Morocco, Tunisia and Turkey. In Belgium, France, Germany, The Netherlands, Sweden and Switzerland in the 1980s, non-European foreign residents increased from 30 to 50 per cent of all foreign residents.
Rapid urbanisation is often the cause of enormous pressure from urban areas on rural and natural environments. In 1920, the urban population was 14 per cent of the world's population. It reached 25 per cent in 1950. Between 1950 and 1985 the number of people living in cities almost tripled, increasing by 1.25 billions worldwide (UN, 1991). As already illustrated in Chapter 10, the share of urban population is expected to grow. According to the UN medium scenario, almost half of the world population will live in urban areas in the year 2000 (UN, 1991). However, patterns of urbanisation differ from region to region. In 1950, more than half of the population in developed countries lived in cities, and urban population has grown steadily up to approximately 67 per cent in 1970 and 73 per cent in 1990. This percentage is expected to reach 80 by the year 2025. The rate of urban population growth between 1950 and 1990 has been much faster in developing countries, from 17 per cent to 34 per cent.
In Europe more than two thirds of the population now lives in urban areas. High rates of rural-to-urban migration characterised the 1960s and 1970s. Differences in the stage of the urbanisation process can be detected between Western European countries, which have now reached stabilisation, and Southern and Eastern European countries, where rural-to-urban migration is still important (Maps 12.2 and 12.3).
Human development |
The complex links between population, the environment and economic development are still not fully understood. Both poverty and affluence may cause significant environmental degradation. Poverty in the developing regions of the world is often linked to high birth rate and low life expectancy. Poverty and population pressure force people to cultivate more marginal land. On the other hand, affluence in the more developed countries has led to enormous and wasteful consumption of natural resources. Appreciating the ways both poverty and affluence cause environmental degradation may help in understanding what can reverse it. Although no clear relationships can be established between human development and environmental change, there is no doubt that improvements in education, health and nutrition, together with advances in science and technology, broaden the choice to use natural resources sustainably. Equal rights for women play an important role in population issues. Recent trends in three important indicators fertility, life expectancy and living standards across the various regions of the world may provide important insights for assessing future trends.
The total fertility rate worldwide during the 1950s and 1960s was around five children per woman. A major decline in the total fertility rate started in the 1970s: it went down from 5 to 4.5 between 1970 and 1975, and to 3.6 in 198085. Between 1985 and 1990, it fell to 3.45. The UN medium scenario projects total fertility rates of 3.0 and 2.5 for the periods 20002005 and 202025, respectively.
Marked differences in fertility trends can be noted between the more and less developed regions of the world. Fertility rates in the most developed regions have declined from 2.8 in 1950­55 to 1.9 in 198590. In these regions (excluding the former USSR), the current fertility rate is below the replacement level. A substantial decline in the fertility rate has also occurred in less developed regions, with a decrease from 6.19 children per woman in the period 195055 to 4.54 in the period 197580 and 3.94 in the period 198590.
In Europe, where fertility rate is lower than the average level of developed regions, the decline of fertility rate has occurred earlier in Northern and Western parts. The later and slower decline in Southern Europe has been characterised by very steep trends reaching very low levels during the 1980s. By this time, Northern and Western European countries had already reached stabilisation with, in some cases (such as in Denmark, Sweden and the UK), even small increases in fertility rates beginning to occur. In Eastern Europe, fertility declined more slowly than in Southern Europe, while in the former USSR it has increased.
Life expectancy is considered as one of the most representative indicators of health- and environment-related quality of life (see Chapter 11) as well as an important indicator of human development. Improved health and adequate nutrition of the population are fundamental to sustainable development. Large discrepancies in life expectancy between world regions show, however, that such conditions are still to be met for most of the world population.
In 198590 life expectancy at birth for the world was 63.9 years. Life expectancy is 61.4 years in the less developed regions and 75.0 years in the industrial countries. The weighted average life expectancy at birth for European countries was 74.9 years in 1988 (based on 27 countries), and ranged from 69.3 to 78.2 years. The lowest life expectancies in Europe occurred in Central and Eastern Europe. Over the 1980s there was a steady increase of average life expectancy (from 73.2 years in 1980, ie, 0.2 years annually). This is a continuation of the average trend observed over the previous decade. However, most of the countries with low life expectancy at the beginning of the 1980s have shown very little increase in the past ten years.
The average difference in life expectancy between females and males in Europe is about 6.8 years (range from 3.7 to 8.8). Large gender differences are found both in countries with relatively high (France) and low (Poland, Hungary) overall life expectancy. Only about one third of countries in Europe have shown a small reduction in this difference after 1980. For the others, the difference is stable or still increasing.
Different trends in life expectancy and fertility rate have changed the distribution of age structure of the population across world regions. The effects of the necessary social and economic adjustment to the different age structures (younger in the developing countries and older in the developed countries) on the patterns of production and consumption are still unfolding.
National income is one measure of living standards across different countries, although it does not reflect marked regional differences. Expressed in GNP (Gross National Product) per capita, the average incomes in developed versus developing countries was $12 510 versus $710 in 1990. On average, the income of one person from the North is 18 times greater than that of one person in the South. This means that 77 per cent of the world's population earn only 15 per cent of the world's income (UNDP, 1991).
Regional differences in income and living standards between European countries are responsible for different patterns of production and consumption between Western, Southern and Central and Eastern Europe. Comparing real GDP (Gross Domestic Product)per capita in selected European countries, adjusted with the UN Purchasing Power Parity (PPP, which accounts for the differences in the cost of living), reveals that important discrepancies exist across European regions (Figure 12.3).
PRODUCTION AND CONSUMPTION |
The patterns |
Production and consumption have grown worldwide more rapidly than population over the last 40 years. In 1950 the world produced only about a sixth of the goods it does today (Figure 12.5). However, marked differences can be observed across world regions. Increases in production and consumption are particularly concentrated in a limited number of countries which total only one quarter of the world's population. Disparities in income between the rich and poor countries, measured in volume of GDP, have widened. The income gap between developed and developing countries is reflected in the per capita consumption of the world's natural resources and in the generation of emissions and waste. Industrialised countries, including Eastern and Central European countries, account for 82 per cent of world commercial energy consumption. On average, per capita consumption of energy from fossil fuels is 10 times higher in OECD countries than in developing countries. OECD countries, which account for only 16 per cent of the world population, also generate 68 per cent of the world's industrial waste. Relevant disparities in consumption patterns among developed and developing countries emerge from recent estimates on a number of commodities (Table 12.2).
Regional differences in production patterns in Europe are evident when examining and comparing changes in macro-economic indicators over the last 20 years. Significant growth in GDP per capita and industrial production occurred in Western European countries (Figure 12.4). The growth of economic activities has been accompanied by structural changes in the production system with a shift from material- and energy-intensive sectors to services. Particularly relevant from an environmental perspective is the development in industrial production, shifting from traditional industries (such as iron and steel and petroleum refining) towards electronic and electrical industries, telecommunication, data processing and fine chemicals. This trend, coupled with some effects of energy efficiency improvements, has led to a significant reduction of energy intensity (or total primary energy requirements per unit of GDP) with an improvement of more than 25 per cent in the last 20 years (Figure 12.6). Structural changes with relevant environmental implications have occurred also in the agriculture system with the increasing intensity and specialisation of food production, as the result of, among other factors, the increasing vertical integration of the food sector.
Trend analysis of the Gross Material Product in Central and Eastern European countries shows a general growth of economic activity between 1970 and 1990 (Figure 12.7). Except for the last few years, during which production has considerably dropped, the increase of economic activities ranged between 45 and 75 per cent compared with 1971. GDP per capita in Central and Eastern European countries remains, however, much lower than average GDP per capita in Western European countries (Figure 12.8). However, energy intensity of production is still high despite a decrease of 20 per cent achieved between 1970 and 1990. While per capita energy consumption in these countries is often lower than the Western European average, relative consumption of energy per unit of product is three or more times higher than in Western European countries, due to the high share of heavy industries and obsolete technologies. The transition from centrally planned economies to market economies in Central and Eastern Europe is expected to bring substantial changes towards the restructuring of industrial activities. However, the current economic recession suggests that these changes will not have an effect as fast as was envisaged.
Processes and technologies |
The nature of production and consumption must be taken into account when considering the links between environmental impacts and economic development and how they vary over time. Environmental impacts depend on processes and technologies as well as on the volume of consumer goods and services provided. The amount of energy and materials involved and emissions and waste generated may vary to a great extent depending on product design, methods of production and technologies employed. Technology is a key factor influencing environmental transformation processes due to human activities.
Increases in oil prices in the early 1970s, together with growing environmental concerns and environmental regulation, have led to economic restructuring in industrialised countries worldwide. Technological change in industrialised countries has occurred particularly in the field of energy conservation, material substitution and pollution control. This is especially evident when comparing energy and raw material consumption to production trends. It is also evident when examining the considerable growth of the specific industrial sector concerned with environmental protection, which accounted already at the end of the 1980s to between $70 and $100 billion and a workforce of approximately 1.5 million (OECD, 1991b).
Consistent with these trends, technological transformation and substitution of industrial processes in Western European countries have increased substantially the energy and material productivity of production. Compared with production trends, the growth rate of energy and raw material use is still elevated in Eastern Europe. The substitution of production processes in Eastern European countries is a more recent trend associated with political change and adjustment of the prices of natural resources.
In the medium to long term, it is becoming clear that the transition to a 'new technological system' will affect the economy in both Western and Eastern European countries. The main areas of this transition are biotechnology, new materials and new energy sources. In addition, the development of information technology and artificial intelligence may affect both the way resources are managed and the capability for environmental restoration and pollution control. However, the potential risks and new constraints imposed by the wide application of these new technologies are still poorly understood.
While improving the efficiency of production processes, technological innovation worldwide has raised new environmental concerns. Product substitution has led to an increase in the type and amount of new substances, the effects of which on the environment and human health are not always well known (see Chapter 17). Increased environmental concerns have emerged for the growing amount and toxicity of waste and the environmental hazards in the recycling and disposal of new materials (see Chapter 15). In addition, development and widespread use of more complex technologies also increase risk of accidents (see Chapter 18).
Environmental impacts |
Production and consumption activities have both direct and indirect effects on environmental systems, from the extraction of raw materials, through intermediate processing, manufacturing of final products, consumption and disposal. At all stages, these activities involve the use of materials and energy as well as the emission of pollutants and waste (Figure 12.9). From an environmental standpoint, production and consumption can be described as the sum of total materials and energy transformation to convert raw materials into products, to use these products to satisfy human needs and to dispose of wastes.
Industrialised countries worldwide have increasingly recognised the need to address the full impacts of their production and consumption processes. New concepts such as clean production and integrated pollution control have emerged as strategies to minimise the environmental impact of production and consumption activities in the various stages of the product life-cycle. Life-cycle analysis (LCA) methodologies have been implemented and are currently being proposed as a tool to improve product design and manufacturing processes (Box 12A). Increasingly, however, concerns are emerging as to whether reductions of the volume of certain activities will be required to achieve sustainable levels of production and consumption.
ECONOMIC GROWTH VERSUS DEVELOPMENT |
The notion of sustainable development has raised new questions about the physical limits to population, production and consumption and the extent to which successful application of new technologies may expand these limits. Although there is a wide range of opinions on what sustainability entails, a general principle can be derived from the definition provided in the Report of the World Commission on Environment and Development (WCED, 1987). Sustainability is a relationship between human and ecological systems which allows the improvement and development of the quality of life while maintaining the structure, functions and diversity of life-supporting systems.
To achieve a sustainable pattern of resource use and population it is crucial to understand the interactions of population and per capita consumption as mediated by technology, culture and value (Arizpe et al, 1992). The relationship between people, resources and development is highly complex and still poorly understood. Several studies have indicated that there is no linear relationship between growing population and density and environmental degradation (Caldwell, 1984). Recent studies on the relationships between population, use of natural resources and environmental impact show that no single factor dominates the changing patterns of total impact across time (Clark, 1991). Clark (1991) has also demonstrated that the same level of pollution loading can come from radically different combinations of population size, consumption and production.
One important distinction that has emerged in the last decades is between economic development and growth. Economic growth implies increase in quantity of production and consumption, while economic development is increase in well-being without a necessary increase in consumption. Technological advances, no doubt, have increased the efficient use of materials and energy. Different opinions exist, however, regarding whether a sustainable economy can be achieved by pushing further the energy efficiency of production systems through technological change without requiring changes in lifestyle, population and wealth distribution. The degree to which technological change can eliminate resource constraints is uncertain. Limited also is the knowledge of the potential impact that new technologies can pose.
Because of the large uncertainty, increasing attention at scientific and institutional levels is being placed on precautionary principles and more integrated approaches to environmental protection and economic development. This requires an increased capacity to anticipate and assess potential environmental consequences of economic and development programmes for the long term. Important steps have been made for extending the concept and procedures of environmental impact assessment (EIA) from individual projects to economic decisions and policies. The notion of strategic environmental assessment (SEA) has emerged to provide policy makers with a critical tool to assess alternative scenarios and policy options (Box 12B). A number of European countries such The Netherlands, Denmark and Norway have launched the concept of Green Plans (Box 12C) to better integrate environmental considerations into economic decisions.
These considerations also influence the framework for environmental monitoring, assessment and reporting as discussed in Chapter 1.