Source: Michael St Maur Sheil
INTRODUCTION |
An efficient transport system is a crucial precondition for economic development and an asset in international competition. Personal mobility for work, study and leisure purposes is considered a key ingredient of modern life. With the integration of markets in Europe, economic growth and higher levels of income, transport is also a major growth sector. In the EU, the transport service industry accounts for about 7 to 8 per cent of GDP including 'own account' (transport by and for the same enterprise) and private transport (CEC, 1992a). To grow together, the continent needs the mobility of people and goods made possible by an efficient transport system.
The benefits of transport, however, come at a high price. The Task Force on the Environment and the EC Internal Market considered transport: '...the most important environmental impact of the Internal Market' (Task Force Environment and the Internal Market, 1990). Not only are the building and maintenance of transport infrastructure a significant item in government spending and accidents a heavy social cost (see Chapters 10 and 11), but nuisances from noise, air pollution and the consumption of energy and natural resources also represent considerable environmental liabilities. Carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions from transport are a major contributor to the greenhouse effect. Road transport is currently the greatest offender, accounting for 80 per cent of CO2 emissions from transport and 60 per cent of total nitrogen oxides (NOx) emissions. Routine and accidental releases of oil or chemical substances into the environment by lorries and tankers contribute to the pollution of soils, rivers and the sea. Transport infrastructure covers an increasing amount of land to the virtual exclusion of other uses, cuts through ecosystems and spoils the view of natural scenery and historic monuments.
No mode of motorised transport is environmentally friendly. However, some modes of transport, notably rail and inland waterway, have lower environmental impacts than others, such as road and air. An analysis of transport developments and their impact on the environment must therefore distinguish between different modes of transport, and whether these modes are transporting passengers or freight.
The social and environmental costs in Germany of road transport alone have been put at 2.5 per cent of GDP (Kågeson, 1993). For OECD countries as a whole the figure for road transport has been put even higher at nearer 5 per cent (OECD, 1988). It is therefore questionable whether the present organisation and level of transport in Europe are environmentally sustainable.
Figure 21.1 shows the contribution of road transport to a number of environmental problems in The Netherlands. For example, road transport is the main cause of noise nuisance in The Netherlands (over 80 per cent), while contributing little to waste disposal problems (under 5 per cent). Comparisons of the range of environmental impacts from transport would be possible with such 'theme profiles' for other countries. Unfortunately, theme profiles have so far only been developed for The Netherlands (Adriaanse, 1993).
ENVIRONMENTAL IMPACTS |
Overview |
Transport is a key sector for policy actions to improve the quality of the European environment and combat global environmental problems. Transport has impacts on both the natural and built environments, and on human health. Table 21.1 provides an overview of significant types of environmental impacts from different modes of transport. This section elaborates some of the principal impacts of transport in terms of emissions, energy consumption and transformation of land resources. Other environmental impacts are covered elsewhere in the report. Noise from transport is treated in Chapter 16, used tyres in Chapter 15 and traffic accidents and associated hazards in Chapters 10, 11 and 18. Transport in urban areas is covered in Chapter 10. Box 21A provides an overview of definitions, data availability and quality related to transport.
Energy consumption and climate change |
Since the beginning of the 1970s, transport has become a Major consumer of non-renewable energy resources. All power-driven transport consumes energy. Oil currently fulfils almost all transport energy needs. In the EU, road transport currently accounts for over 80 per cent of oil consumption of the transport sector (see Table 21.2). Thus, the demand for oil products by transport is largely responsible for the depletion of non-renewable resources, energy-related emissions, and environmental impacts arising from the oil industry.
Energy consumption by transport can be assessed by country or city, by mode, and by comparison with energy consumption by other human activities (notably industry, agriculture and households). Some data showing the share of transport in total energy consumption by country and by city are presented earlier in this report (see Chapters 19 and 10 respectively).
Table 21.2 shows trends in energy consumption by transport for different parts of Europe over the last 20 years. Energy consumption by transport doubled in the EU between 1970 and 1990. In Central Europe the increase in total energy used in transport was far more modest, though consumption of petroleum for road transport increased by nearly 50 per cent between 1970 and 1990. The trends in energy consumption by transport for some selected European countries are shown in Figure 21.2: the greatest increase relative to 1970 is for France, and the greatest decrease for the former Czechoslovakia.
Figure 21.3 shows the modal split of energy consumption for the same countries in 1990. Road and air transport accounted for 95 per cent of energy consumed by transport in France, and in Sweden, compared with 90 per cent in the former Czechoslovakia (on the other hand, the energy used in rail transport was 7 per cent more in the former Czechoslovakia than in France). In the former USSR, road transport in 1990 accounted for only 46 per cent of energy consumption by transport, with railways accounting for 18 per cent, air for 16 per cent and inland waterways for 7 per cent. The low figure for road transport reflects the low degree of motorisation in the former USSR, while the high share of air transport reflects the size of the country. Generally speaking, in Western Europe road and air transport are both the biggest energy consumers within the transport sector and have experienced strong growth in the past. The situation in Central and Eastern Europe is different due to another modal split.
Air transport, passenger cars and lorries consume proportionally more energy per passenger-kilometre or tonne-kilometre than railway and inland waterway transport. (Worldwide, air transport accounts for about 15 per cent of energy use by transport.) Energy requirements for passenger and freight transport vary not only by mode of transport, but also according to the occupancy rate (ie, the number of passengers in a car, and the loading factor in lorries).
There have been improvements in road vehicle efficiency across Europe. During the period 1970 to 1990, the average fuel consumption of new cars in the EC decreased from 10 to 8.2 litres per 100 kilometres (Gwilliam and Geerlings, 1992). Currently available technologies, plus weight reduction, could have the potential to reduce fuel consumption by more than a third. However, such improvements in efficiency have been more than offset by increases in vehicle ownership. Another trend, leading to higher fuel consumption, is the increasing amount of larger and more powerful vehicles.
Transport is a major contributor to emissions of greenhouse gases. The most important of these are emissions of CO2, and to a lesser extent nitrous oxide (N20) and methane (CH4) (Rypdal, 1993). In the EU, transport currently accounts for about one quarter of total energy-related CO2 emissions and reaches a share of over 30 per cent in Luxembourg, France and Spain (ECMT, 1994). In some Central and Eastern European countries in 1988 (the former Czechoslovakia, Hungary and Poland), the transport sector was responsible for between 7 and 11 per cent of total energy-related CO2 emissions, while the share in Slovenia was some 21 per cent (Klimont et al, 1993). Thus transport is a less important contributor to CO2 emissions in Central and Eastern Europe than in Western Europe.
Road traffic currently accounts for some 80 per cent of total transport emissions of CO2 in the EU, followed by aircraft with a share of 15 per cent. Freight transport contributes about one third of total transport CO2 emissions, and passenger cars about 45 per cent (DG XI, CEC, personal communication). Table 21.3 shows estimates of actual emissions by passenger and freight transport by taking into account different 'loading factors'. For example, for freight transport, the load factor for light- and heavy-duty road freight transport is low (3040%) compared with trains and inland waterways (nearer 100%). At these assumed loading factors, lorries emit 5 to 6 times more CO2 than trains per tonne/km.
Looking at the life-cycle of passenger cars, almost one third of greenhouse gas emissions arise from causes other than vehicle operation. The IEA have estimated that about 72 per cent of greenhouse gases from passenger cars are emitted from the exhaust during vehicle operation, 17 to 18 per cent of car life-cycle emissions arise from fuel extracting processing and distribution, and a further 10 per cent from vehicle manufacture (IEA, 1993).
The consumption of energy by transport varies not only in absolute terms between different countries, but also by mode of transport. Trends indicate that in a 'business as usual' scenario, energy consumption and hence transport-related CO2 emissions will increase by almost 25 per cent between 1990 and 2000 (CEC, 1992a). The main increase in consumption of energy and CO2 emissions will be for road transport. Growth trends may even be greater in Central and Eastern Europe.
Conventional emissions |
As described in earlier chapters, transport is a major factor contributing to atmospheric emissions (Chapters 4 and 14). Emissions arising from road transport are the most significant. However, emissions into the air from aircraft and shipping and operational discharges to water from shipping are also cause for concern. When emission figures are cited in this section, they refer to total emissions from all transport modes, unless otherwise qualified. The term 'mobile sources' is used when UNECE statistical data are cited, which in principle covers all modes of transport (UNECE, 1992a). The human health effects of emissions arising from transport are not covered in this chapter (see Chapter 11).
The most significant conventional emissions from road transport are of NOx, CO, VOCs, lead and particulate matter. Some exhaust emissions from road transport give rise also to secondary pollution, such as photochemical oxidants (see Chapter 32).
Nitrogen oxides (NOx) contribute indirectly to the 'greenhouse effect' and directly to acid rain and the build-up of tropospheric ozone. In 1990, about 45 per cent of total NOx emissions to the atmosphere in 20 European countries were attributable to road transport (Chapter 4 and 14). Emissions of NOx result from the combustion of fuels under high pressure and temperatures. As the energy efficiency of engines depends on high compression ratios, there is a conflict between the objectives of energy efficiency (and lower CO2 emissions) and low NOx emissions. Consequently, for example, the inherently energy-efficient diesel engine has comparatively high NOx emissions. Within the EU for 1990, petrol-powered cars and light-duty vehicles, which accounted for 70 per cent of the vehicle fleet, contributed 56 per cent to NOx emissions from road transport, while diesel-powered heavy goods vehicles and buses, which accounted for only 2 per cent of the vehicle fleet, contributed 34 per cent to NOx emissions from road transport (Table 21.4).
Trends in emissions from mobile sources of NOx vary between different European countries . The share of NOx emissions from mobile sources, of total NOx emissions, varies between 25 per cent in the Czech Republic to 78 per cent in Norway (CORINAIR90, 19 countries see Chapter 14). Even with the implementation of legislation to reduce NOx emissions from road vehicles, throughout the 1980s emissions of NOx have risen steadily in Western Europe. This is mainly because of the continuing increase in road transport. In addition, there is also a considerable difference between prescribed emission standards for new passenger cars and the actual emission performance of the existing fleet. This is due mainly to the time needed for emission control technologies to penetrate the vehicle fleet. In addition, the replacement rates for car fleets can differ considerably between countries. For example, for 1991, in Spain 22 per cent of passenger cars were 15 or more years old, while in the UK the corresponding figure is only 4 per cent (UNECE, personal communication). In Hungary, 42 per cent of the passenger fleet is over 10 years old, and 62 per cent over 7 years old (World Bank, 1993). Finally, in all parts of Europe, in-service emissions from vehicles are often very high due to poor maintenance.
Fewer data are available for NOx emissions from road transport for Central and Eastern Europe, and hence it is more difficult to detect trends. However, increased motorisation in Central and Eastern Europe is likely to lead to emissions rising in the future. For example, NOx emissions for passenger cars from Poland have been projected to increase from around 55 thousand tonnes per year in 1989 to about 100 thousand tonnes per year by 2000 before declining as catalytic converters are introduced (Fergusson, 1991). Planned restrictions and the introduction of technological control devices are hoped to reduce total European NOx emissions by 2000 by about 20 to 30 per cent compared with 1990 levels, and transport must make a contribution (UNECE 1988 Sofia protocol on NOx emissions see Chapter 31).
Some of the air pollution problems occur along major trunk roads linking towns. This is particularly true for NOx emissions, which increase with vehicle speed. Such vehicle emissions contribute to the formation of tropospheric photochemical oxidants. Map 21.1 provides an example of the emissions arising from journeys between Helsinki and Oulu in Finland.
The greatest volumes in absolute terms of toxic emissions from road transport are of carbon monoxide (CO) created through incomplete fuel combustion from petrol engines. Emission estimates from mobile sources vary between 30 and 90 per cent of total CO emissions (CORINAIR90, 19 countries see Chapter 14). In Western Europe, emissions of CO are almost exclusively produced by petrol-powered passenger cars (particularly in urban areas), while in Central and Eastern Europe there are also considerable emissions from stationary sources. Carbon monoxide has significant human health impacts, particularly interfering with absorption of oxygen.
Volatile organic compounds (VOC) emissions contribute to the build-up of tropospheric photochemical oxidants. They arise from incomplete fuel combustion and the evaporation of fuel from petrol engines and service stations. Consistent data are not available on emissions of VOCs from mobile sources (see Chapter 14), but road transport is believed to have accounted in the late 1980s for about 35 to 40 per cent of VOC emissions in Europe (CEC, 1992b). Emissions of VOCs from mobile sources in most countries are quite stable or slightly increasing, which reflects the trend in total VOC emissions (UNECE, 1992a). Emissions related to service stations (resulting from stockage of petrol and its distribution from terminals to service stations) account for about 5 per cent of all anthropogenic VOC emissions (CEC, 1992b).
Particulate matter is associated primarily with diesel engines, with emissions 30 to 70 times greater than for petrol engines. Particulate matter can remain in the air for considerable periods of time and contribute to particulate smog. Particulates are also damaging to health, particularly those particles fine enough to remain within the lung (leading to respiratory diseases and cancer).
While most transport emissions originate from passenger and freight transport, emissions from off-road vehicles (eg, agricultural tractors, construction machines, industrial machines and forest machines) can also be significant. In Finland, it has been estimated that work machinery contributed 15 per cent of total NOx, 9 per cent of total CO, 5 per cent of total VOCs, and 4 per cent of total particulate matter emissions in 1990. Similar studies in Sweden and The Netherlands have equally shown that emissions from work machinery are significant (Puranen and Mattila, 1992).
The main environmental problem of aircraft emissions relates to NOx and CO2. A particular concern here is that emissions are injected at such high altitudes. The suspected effects of air transport on stratospheric ozone depletion and global warming are already described in previous chapters (4 and 14). Although the share of the total volume of transport accounted for by air transport is small, its share of emissions is considerable because of high energy consumption per km travelled. The share of NOx produced by aviation could actually increase, because newer aircraft have more efficient engines with higher combustion temperatures, and hence a tendency to produce more NOx (IATA, 1992). Changing engine technology and the design of planes, combined with alterations to flight patterns, mean that the average altitude of flights is slowly increasing, raising the altitude at which CO2 and NOx gases are emitted. This in turn may enhance their effect on global warming (Gwilliam and Geerlings, 1992).
There are few data on emissions arising from rail transport, which are low compared with road and air transport. Electrification of railway lines can reduce considerably the overall energy burden needed to operate a network. For example, in Germany the energy use has been reduced to about 25 per cent of that in 1953, while the volume of traffic has increased by a third (Ellwanger, 1993). Overall reduction in the energy burden in turn reduces energy-related emissions. The alternative to using electricity is normally diesel fuel. In the EU the degree of electrification varies considerably, from zero in Greece to 80 per cent in Luxembourg (CEC, 1993a). In Central and Eastern Europe, the extent of the electrified train network is more limited than in the EU, and hence there are more direct emissions arising from rail transport.
As with rail transportation, there are few data available on emissions from maritime and inland water transport per tonne-km travelled. Maritime transport contributes to some local environmental impacts, mainly around harbours. The bunkering and loading of fuels can give rise to evaporative VOC emissions. Sulphur dioxide emissions from sea-going vessels can be considerable due to the high sulphur content of bunker fuel used in maritime transport. This can be quite high in crowded shipping lanes (eg, emissions of SO2 from ships in the Strait of Dover involved in international trade were 4.0 to 9.9 tonnes/km2/year between 1985 and 1990 (CORINAIR data)). The emissions to air arising from freight transport by inland waterways are lower per tonne-km. However, both maritime and inland waterway transport give rise to significant emissions to water. While most attention is normally focused on periodic accidents (see Chapters 18 and 30), most discharges to water are of an operational nature.
Conventional emissions from road transport are cause for concern. Emissions of NOx, CO and VOCs per vehicle should reduce (at least temporarily) with the gradual penetration of passenger car fleets with catalytic converters in Western Europe over the next few years. Increasing road traffic, however, will cause increases in total emissions from road transport. In Central and Eastern Europe, however, trends in conventional emissions are likely to increase until new technologies are introduced.
Land intrusion |
Transport infrastructure consists of roads, railways, waterways, harbours, airports, garages and depots and parking places. This covers land which could possibly be put to other purposes or left to nature. The use of land by different transport modes has been reviewed in Chapter 10. In general, natural habitats are irreversibly destroyed when transport facilities are built. Damage also arises at extraction sites of building materials and at dumps for rubble from infrastructure works. In many cases, recultivation measures for quarries, spoil tips and abandoned lines are not carried out. In addition, transport infrastructure creates barriers within natural habitats where they impede the migration of animals. However, in certain cases, transport infrastructure can also create natural corridors in urban areas or areas of intensive agriculture. Box 21B provides an example of a recent infrastructure development of European significance.
Different modes of transport use varying amounts of land. There are no comprehensive data available on the land taken for different modes of transport. However, it has been estimated that the road network consumes about 1.3 per cent of the total land area of the EU, as compared with about 0.03 per cent for the railway network (CEC, 1992c). An important measure of land-take is landuse in terms of infrastructure needed to move one transport unit, expressed in persons or tonnes of freight, over a given distance. Landuse is most efficient for air and sea transport due to relatively small land-take for a given journey, followed by inland navigation. It is less efficient for rail and least for road (CEC, 1992a).
In all European countries, the total road network is much longer than the total rail network. In addition, while the total length of the rail network diminished by 4.1 per cent in European OECD countries between 1970 and 1985, the road network has expanded (UNEP, 1992). For most analyses the road network is split into motorways and 'other roads'. Motorways account for a small fraction of the total length of the road network. In the EU the current length of the motorway network presently exceeds 35 000 km (CEC, 1993b). However, the greatest rates of increase in road construction in Europe have been for motorways, while the length of 'other roads' has increased only slightly. In the EU the construction of some 12 000 km of new motorway is planned by 2002 (CEC, 1993b). Also in Central and Eastern European countries, the motorway network has been expanded. Between 1980 and 1988, its length grew by 130.4 per cent in Bulgaria, 59.2 per cent in the former Yugoslavia, 48.8 per cent in Hungary and 17.7 per cent in Romania. However, the length of motorways in Central and Eastern Europe was very low in 1980 by Western European standards (absolute figures are contained in the Statistical Compendium).
An indicator which gives some impression of the extent to which land is taken by transport infrastructure is road density, defined as the total length of the road network in relation to land surface. Figure 21.4 shows the road density (the length of all roads, per unit of total land area) between 1970 and 1990 for selected countries, and illustrates the large differences between them.
Generally speaking, the environmental evaluation of transport infrastructure has to consider both direct and indirect effects as well as unavoidable trade-offs. For example, besides taking increasing amounts of land, the extension of old roads and the building of new roads and motorways indirectly tends to induce new road transport as bottlenecks are reduced and convenience and accessibility are increased. New motorways can also increase pressures for development, especially close to interchanges (eg, the M25 ring around London). Consequently, the environmental effects described above can be worsened. Even though rail and waterways are environmentally preferable transport modes, they can also have deleterious environmental impacts. Transport infrastructure is never environmentally neutral.
TRENDS AND UNDERLYING FORCES IN THE TRANSPORT SYSTEM |
The picture of transportation in Europe has changed considerably over the last few decades, albeit less so in Central and Eastern Europe than in Western Europe. It is the direction of these changes which turns transport into an increasingly important pressure on the environment and on the quality of life of European citizens. Developments are determined by two major trends: growing demand for transport, and the changing market share of transport modes. An overall picture is provided in Tables 21.5 (Western European countries) and 21.6 (Central European countries). While both these trends have been evident in Western Europe for many years, they are likely to materialise also in the Central (and Eastern) European countries as their economies are transformed.
Growing transport demand |
The growing demand for transport is governed by a complex interaction between economic growth, changes in industrial structure for freight transport, and socio-economic factors such as higher levels of income and new landuse patterns for passenger transport. While the costs of private transport have declined in real terms for both passenger and freight transport, the same cannot be said for public transport.
Changes in the volume and structure of economic activity have immediate repercussions on the transport system. In the 20-year period between 1970 and 1990, an average annual GDP growth of 2.6 per cent was accompanied by an annual growth rate of 2.5 per cent for freight transport generally, and a 4.1 per cent increase for road freight in ECMT countries. Since 1985, the growth in freight transport even exceeded the increase in GDP in ECMT countries (Short, 1992).
Over the same period for passenger transport there was an annual growth rate of 3.1 per cent; for passenger cars the annual growth rate was 3.4 per cent (Short, 1992). The general pattern of growing demand for both freight and passenger transport is likely to persist if economic growth is maintained, and there are no significant changes in real costs and other factors. It is difficult to make such comparisons for passenger and freight transport for Central and Eastern European countries due to difficulties in devising historic GNP figures for these countries.
Changes in industrial structure have resulted in locational shifts from urban to new industrial sites and contributed towards a dispersal of economic activities. These changes have been amplified by continuing processes of economic integration within the EU (the completion of the Single Market, the European Economic Area and the movement into market economies of the Central and Eastern European countries).
The development of strongly service-based economies has made transport patterns more diffuse. The number of points of departure and arrival has increased, and flexibility and speed have become key parameters in transport decisions. At the same time, changes in production organisation and logistics have increased the demand for transport. In an effort to optimise production and save on storage costs and stock capital, for instance, business has introduced just-in-time (JIT) delivery systems. JIT is based on the splitting of loads into smaller batches which means a higher number of transport movements for a given load. Generally speaking, the nature of freight has shifted from heavy bulk goods to lighter high-value goods. There has therefore been a reduction in shipment size and an increase in shipment frequency.
A large part of the growth in freight transport is accounted for not by the increase in freight volumes, but by the fact that goods are shipped over longer distances. In Germany, for example, between 1970 and 1990, while total domestic freight transport on all modes grew roughly in line with GDP, long distance road freight transport rose by an average annual rate of 5.4 per cent (OECD, 1993b). The total international northsouth transport of freight in Europe accounts for about 65 million tonnes a year, and according to some estimates will increase to 120 million tonnes in 2010. During the last decades the share of road goods in international road transport has increased most and now exceeds freight transport by rail (UNECE, 1991). For example, freight traffic over the Alps in France, Switzerland and Austria has grown by one half, from 50.4 to 74.6 million tonnes between 1979 and 1990: the share of freight carried by road transport has increased from 44.2 per cent to 55.6 per cent. The disturbance caused by road freight transport is not confined only to the level of traffic. The size of the freight vehicles is also important. As a result, the transit treaty between the EU and Switzerland contains certain provisions to limit the number of trips by 40 tonne trucks (BUWAL, 1992).
The opening up of Central and Eastern European countries and the development of corresponding trade links will enhance transport demand for both freight and passenger transport (UNECE, 1992b). Even under conservative assumptions concerning economic developments in the former socialist countries, westeast road transport is predicted to rise by a factor of around four, and transport flows on rail by a factor of around three in the next 15 to 20 years (Empirica, 1993, p 160). The European Commission and UNECE have proposed the strengthening of pan-European networks to cope with anticipated increases in traffic (CEC, 1992a, UNECE, 1992b).
The increase of net income and demographic changes have led to higher rates of car ownership and increased holiday and leisure time for travelling. The bulk of the increase of passenger transport is due to the increased use of the private car, which has almost doubled in Western Europe, and increased over sixfold in Hungary between 1970 and 1990 (see Tables 21.5 and 21.6). Current levels of car ownership are greater in Western Europe, with an average of 34.9 cars per 100 inhabitants in 1990, compared with an average of 17.6 cars per 100 inhabitants for former Czechoslovakia, Hungary and Poland. However, in Central and Eastern European countries, although fewer people have a car, the annual rate of increase in car ownership is greater than in Western Europe (Figure 21.5). In Poland, for example, the number of motor cars per 100 inhabitants has nearly doubled from 6.7 in 1980 to 13.8 in 1990. In Central and Eastern Europe, rising incomes are likely to lead to further increased demand for personal transport.
Passenger transport by air is growing rapidly in Europe. However, the number of aircraft movements has not increased as rapidly as the number of passengers. This is due to an increase in the size of aircraft. This growth is particularly associated with the movement of tourists, which tends to be concentrated in summer months (see Chapter 25).
At the local level, the functional segregation of landuse (work, leisure, shopping) has increased the need for commuting and for travelling in daily life. Many services can be obtained only by travelling over longer distances. Out-of-town shopping centres have become commonplace (see Chapter 10).
Changing market shares of different transport modes |
The choice between different modes of transport is determined by user needs, on the one hand, and the services and costs offered by each mode, on the other. User needs change with developments in production and distribution systems for freight transport, and landuse and lifestyles for passenger transport. The services and costs of different transport modes are determined by the operators themselves and, partly, by government policies. In essence, changes which have taken place in recent years have favoured road over less polluting rail and waterway transport. The distribution of goods and passengers between these modes has changed accordingly.
Regarding freight transport, the greatest increase has been for air, road transport and pipelines in Western Europe (see Table 21.5). There has been a decline in the movement of goods transported by rail: only in Austria is there currently still more freight movement by rail than road. In Central European countries, more freight is moved by rail than road, though the share of rail in freight transport declined by almost 20 percentage points between 1970 and 1990 (Table 21.6).
For many purposes, road freight transport has a number of advantages over other modes of transport. It offers rapid, flexible and reliable door-to-door services. These correspond well to current trends in transport needs and logistics (eg, JIT). While heavy, low-value bulk goods can well be shipped by rail and waterways, these modes are presently not well suited to the transport of small batches of high-value freight. There has also been a proliferation of courier express companies which use the fastest means of transport (usually by road or air) at each stage in a journey to ensure rapid delivery.
While its superior service quality is the main trump card of road transport, even as far as costs are concerned, rail and combined transportation are less competitive, particularly over short distances. Sixty-six per cent of all goods in the EU are transported within 50 km, and a further 20 per cent within distances of between 50 and 150 km, leaving only 14 per cent for longer distances (CEC, 1992a). It is estimated that just under half of all national and international rail transport in the EU takes place over distances of more than 150 km and about 15 per cent over distances in excess of 500 km. The transport of rail freight in the EU is mainly over medium distances (50150 km).
Nevertheless, even on longer distances, road haulage is increasingly the preferred option of shippers. The phenomenon of 'trucked airfreight' illustrates the competitive power of road haulage over long hauls. The advantage of road transport also lies in the extensiveness of its infrastructure. Roads link up all places of production, distribution and consumption. At the same time, smaller railway lines are closed down. In many cases, therefore, road transport is the only option.
In the passenger transport sector, a large variety of factors determine modal choice. Income, car ownership, demographic characteristics, trip length, time of the trip and journey purpose are important in the decision to take the car or, instead, use some form of public or non-motorised transport. Crucial, of course, are the availability of public transport services as well as their quality (reliability, frequency, speed, comfort). Especially on shorter trips, public transport is often not a viable alternative to using the car. Access to many facilities (eg, out-of-town shopping centres, places of leisure) is possible virtually only by car. Although comprehensive data for passenger transport are patchy, data for two large EU Member States point to the predominance of short-distance travel (CEC, 1992a). For one country, for example, half the car passenger journeys were over a distance of less than 5 km, and only a quarter over more than 10 km. Data from the other country show that a private car is on average used for only 2.7 journeys over a distance of more than 200 km per year, and that half of all private cars never travel that distance. People may, however, be deterred from using their own vehicle by restrictive policies such as parking restrictions in urban areas. Positive measures also include the building of cycle lanes and walkways to make these non-motorised forms of mobility more attractive. This clearly highlights the significance of public infrastructure and landuse policies in influencing choice of means of transport.
Growing demand for transportation and changes in the split between transport modes have characterised developments in the field in Western Europe. In the absence of new policy measures, growth will continue to concentrate on road transport of freight and passengers. To what extent these patterns will be repeated in the Central and Eastern European countries depends both on the progress of social and economic transformation and on public policies. In the past, there were strong differences in the transportation systems in Western and Central and Eastern Europe. Although the vehicle fleet in the former socialist countries is older and hence noisier and more polluting than in Western countries, there was little of the growing transport demand and the changing modal split that has been increasing environmental pressures in Western Europe. In fact, transport policies under socialism were often geared towards public transport services, although these were often not well maintained. The road's share of total freight transport (in tonne-kilometres) was much lower than in Western Europe, although it rose during the 1980s in Bulgaria, the former Czechoslovakia and Hungary. Even in Bulgaria, the country with the highest road share in Central and Eastern Europe, road transport accounted for only about one third of total freight transport (E/SB, 1991). If the transport system in the former socialist countries were to develop along Western lines and with similar growth rates, despite technical improvements in vehicles, the local environment would suffer to an increased extent. Furthermore, the pressure on the European and global environment in terms, for example, of energy consumption, global warming and air pollution, would worsen.
OUTLOOK |
Forecasts of growth in transport demand show, at least as far as Western Europe is concerned, that in a 'business as usual' scenario, with reasonably favourable economic conditions, the expansion of the road sector is likely to be buoyant. Under these conditions, a near doubling of road transport for both passengers and freight between 1990 and 2010 seems likely. Even if lower economic growth slows the rate of deterioration of the environment for a time, the risk of development of the transport sector being unsustainable in the medium to long term due to its broad environmental impact remains real (CEC, 1992a).
Action to alleviate the environmental consequences from transport has been taken in all European countries and by the international organisations concerned. It includes a variety of technical and non-technical measures (see Box 21C). Through these measures, the encroachment of transport on the environment and on the quality of life of European citizens has been, and will further be, significantly reduced. Further improvements along these lines are possible through advanced technology and better maintenance. Mandatory emission standards combined with regular in-service controls have emerged as the universal strategy to combat air pollution from road transport. Emissions and noise from the different types of road vehicles have been cut in several steps over the last two decades. Carbon dioxide emissions cannot be controlled by any end-of-pipe technology, such as catalytic converters for NOx emissions. However, CO2 emissions from individual motor vehicles can be curbed by higher fuel efficiency (lean burn engines) and a shift to lighter vehicles. Efforts to develop recycleable and electric cars are progressing.
Nevertheless, especially in the long run, technical measures by themselves will not suffice to meet environmental targets. The growth trends in road and air transport in Western European countries are bound to cancel out the technical improvements achieved in the vehicle fleets. Due largely to its strong growth, and to the unfavourable distribution of transport demand across different modes at least in Western Europe, transport is becoming an increasingly important pressure on the environment in comparison to other human activities. Thus, a common problem for policy makers in Europe today is how to respond to the twofold issue of growing transport demand and how this demand can be best allocated to different transport modes. To supplement technological approaches, there is a need to consider the more wide-ranging use of different instruments (including economic instruments) as a way to curb growth in transport demand in order to meet environmental targets.
The price of transport services can be influenced through taxation or fees such as road tolls. In turn, transport prices influence overall transport demand and the relative use of different transport modes. From both an economic and an environmental point of view, transport prices should not only cover the costs of providing and maintaining transport infrastructure and services. Other external costs such as pollution and nuisances, greenhouse gas emissions, landuse and accidents should also be reflected in transport prices. However, in Europe, up until now, this has generally not been the case. Hence, transportation is artificially cheap and demand for transport exaggerated. Moreover, the external costs of transport are internalised in transport prices to a varying extent for different modes. This creates distortions of competition between different modes. Table 21.7 provides some estimates of the external social and environmental costs arising from transport for Germany. Road transport is clearly the main cause of environmental problems. As mentioned in the introduction, the social and environmental costs of road transport in Germany have been translated from these estimates to approximately 2.5 per cent of GDP, split by accidents (1.16 per cent), air pollution (0.74 per cent), energy/CO2 emissions (0.39 per cent) and noise (0.17 per cent) (Kågeson, 1993).
Central and Eastern European countries face both a special responsibility and a unique opportunity in deciding how to construct their future transport systems. If the same trajectory is followed as that taken so far by Western countries, environmental pressures will be further exacerbated. For example, it is expected that the large increases in road transport in East Germany after reunification in 1990 will lead to an increase in CO2 emissions there by 140 per cent by 2005, compared with an increase of 24 per cent in CO2 in West Germany (ECMT, 1993). Hence, a transport strategy which squares the need for economic development and high-quality transportation services with environmental concerns is urgently needed.
While concern about the environmental consequences of transport is rising, there are no easy solutions at hand. Some actions, besides technological improvements, have already been taken. The development of high-speed networks, already well established for example in France, makes the railways more competitive against road and air transport. However, it should also be added that high-speed train links are not the most important factor in the general state and development of the rail network, and conventional links and regularity of services are also important considerations. In the freight sector, efforts are under way to improve the quality and capacity of combined transport (transport of freight using more than one mode for a given journey), for example, for Alpine transport. However, combined transport can only replace pure road transport if the capacity and flexibility of European railways are significantly enhanced. The development of inland and coastal shipping and the use of pipelines for freight transport are also being encouraged by bodies such as the European Commission and UNECE. The use of cars has been severely curtailed in a growing number of European cities (see Chapter 10). The European Commission has set the ambitious objective of making the transport system as a whole environmentally sustainable through the concept of sustainable mobility (CEC, 1992a and 1992c), although this concept still lacks clear 'operationalisation'.
If transportation systems are to be brought in line with the imperative to protect and improve the environment, substantial changes are required in the organisation of economic activities as well as in private lifestyles. The key question is whether the same or higher levels of the quality of life can be achieved with lower transport demand. So far, the 'transport intensity' of the economic system and of private lifestyles has been growing, and higher levels of welfare have been bought with higher levels of transport. Figure 21.6 demonstrates, for Britain, that, in contrast to the continuing decline of energy intensity, transport intensity is still rising; whereas energy intensity has fallen by 40 per cent between 1960 and 1990, transport intensity has risen by 20 per cent.
For the future, sharp political choices are required mainly in relation to the pricing of transport, and to landuse and infrastructure planning. While the principle has been accepted that users should pay for the full social and environmental costs of transport, as called for, for example, in the resolutions of the ECMT, this principle has still to be put fully into practice. Transport and urban and regional planners, for their part, face the challenge of devising solutions which reduce transport demand and satisfy mobility requirements with a less environmentally harmful mix of transport means.
CONCLUSIONS |