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Indicator Assessment
Past trends
The surface water temperatures of major rivers in Europe have increased by 1–3 °C over the last century (Figure 1). For example, the average temperature in the Rhine near Basel, Switzerland, has risen by more than 2 °C since the 1960s [i]. The temperature of the downstream part of the Rhine increased by nearly 3 °C between 1910 and 2013. A similar increase of 2.4 °C has been observed in the Meuse. Two-thirds of the increase of the downstream part of the Rhine is attributed to the increased use of cooling water and one-third is attributed to the increase in air temperature as a result of climate change [ii]. The annual average temperature of the Danube increased by around by 1 °C during the 20th century [iii].
Increases in surface water temperature were also found in lakes. Lake Võrtsjärv in Estonia had a 0.7 °C increase between 1947 and 2014, and the summer (August) water temperature of Lake Saimaa, Finland, increased by more than 1 °C over the last century (Figure 1). Many other time series indicate a general trend of increasing water temperature in European rivers and lakes in the range of 0.05 to 0.8 °C per decade, with some water bodies warming by more than 1 °C per decade [iv].
Projections
Inland surface water temperatures are projected to increase further, in parallel with the projected increases in air temperature. The exact amount of warming depends on the magnitude of air temperature increase, on the region, on the season and on lake properties and river catchment.
An average increase in summer surface water temperature of 2 °C (1.2–2.9 °C) by 2050 has been estimated for 15 Austrian lakes, depending on the present thermal regime and geographical region [v]. A global study estimated that mean river water temperatures of major European rivers will increase by 1.6–2.1 °C during the 21st century (2071–2100 relative to 1971–2000, mean of a General circulation model (GCM) ensemble driven by IPCC Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES) A2 and B1 scenarios) [vi]. A detailed assessment for the Rhine gives an estimated increase in mean annual and August temperature in the range of 3.0–3.5 °C during the 21st century, due to climate change. The number of days with water temperatures above 25 °C, which is the threshold for significant stress to river fauna and flora, would increase at least five-fold (e.g. from 2–15 days in the reference period 2001–2010 to 32–75 days in 2071–2100) [vii].
[i] FOEN, ‘Indicator Water Temperature of Surface Waters’,Federal Office for the Environment FOEN, 2015, http://www.bafu.admin.ch/umwelt/indikatoren/08605/08609/index.html?lang=en.
[ii] CBS, PBL, and Wageningen UR, ‘Temperatuur oppervlaktewater’,Temperatuur oppervlaktewater, 1910-2013. (indicator 0566, versie 02, 3 juni 2014)., 2014, http://www.clo.nl/nl0566.
[iii] B. W. Webb and F. Nobilis, ‘Water Temperature Behaviour in the River Danube during the Twentieth Century’,Hydrobiologia 291, no. 2 (October 1994): 105–13, doi:10.1007/BF00044439.
[iv] Martin Dokulil, ‘Impact of Climate Warming on European Inland Waters’,Inland Waters 4, no. 1 (26 November 2013): 27–40; CBS, PBL, and Wageningen UR, ‘Temperatuur oppervlaktewater’; FOEN, ‘Indicator Water Temperature of Surface Waters’; Harriet G. Orr et al., ‘Detecting Changing River Temperatures in England and Wales’,Hydrological Processes 29, no. 5 (28 February 2015): 752–66, doi:10.1002/hyp.10181; Sapna Sharma et al., ‘A Global Database of Lake Surface Temperatures Collected by in Situ and Satellite Methods from 1985–2009’,Scientific Data 2 (17 March 2015): 150008, doi:10.1038/sdata.2015.8.
[v] Dokulil, ‘Impact of Climate Warming on European Inland Waters’.
[vi] Michelle T. H. van Vliet et al., ‘Global River Discharge and Water Temperature under Climate Change’,Global Environmental Change 23, no. 2 (April 2013): 450–64, doi:10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2012.11.002.
[vii] ICPR, ‘Estimation of the Effects of Climate Change Scenarios on Future Rhine Water Temperature Development. Extensive Version’, ICPR Report, (2014), http://www.iksr.org/fileadmin/user_upload/Dokumente_de/Taetigkeitsberichte/214_en.pdf.
Preparing for climate change is a major challenge for water management in Europe, and information on changes in water temperature is relevant in relation to the Water Framework Directive (WFD). Climate change is not explicitly included in the text of the WFD, but water management under the WFD will have to deal with the challenges posed by climate change. The stepwise and cyclical approach of the WFD River Basin Management Plans (RBMPs) process makes it well suited to adaptively manage climate change impacts. In particular, the review of RBMPs every six years establishes a mechanism to prepare for and adapt to climate change.
In April 2013, the European Commission (EC) presented the EU Adaptation Strategy Package. This package consists of the EU Strategy on adaptation to climate change (COM/2013/216 final) and a number of supporting documents. The overall aim of the EU Adaptation Strategy is to contribute to a more climate-resilient Europe.
One of the objectives of the EU Adaptation Strategy is Better informed decision-making, which will be achieved by bridging the knowledge gap and further developing the European climate adaptation platform (Climate-ADAPT) as the ‘one-stop shop’ for adaptation information in Europe. Climate-ADAPT has been developed jointly by the EC and the EEA to share knowledge on (1) observed and projected climate change and its impacts on environmental and social systems and on human health, (2) relevant research, (3) EU, transnational, national and subnational adaptation strategies and plans, and (4) adaptation case studies.
Further objectives include Promoting adaptation in key vulnerablesectors through climate-proofing EU sector policies and Promoting action by Member States. Most EU Member States have already adopted national adaptation strategies and many have also prepared action plans on climate change adaptation. The EC also supports adaptation in cities through the Covenant of Mayors for Climate and Energy initiative.
In September 2016, the EC presented an indicative roadmap for the evaluation of the EU Adaptation Strategy by 2018.
In November 2013, the European Parliament and the European Council adopted the 7th EU Environment Action Programme (7th EAP) to 2020, ‘Living well, within the limits of our planet’. The 7th EAP is intended to help guide EU action on environment and climate change up to and beyond 2020. It highlights that ‘Action to mitigate and adapt to climate change will increase the resilience of the Union’s economy and society, while stimulating innovation and protecting the Union’s natural resources.’ Consequently, several priority objectives of the 7th EAP refer to climate change adaptation.
No targets have been specified.
Annual average water temperature in River Rhine and River Meuse (1911–2013); River Danube (1901–1998), Lake Võrtsjärv (1947–2014), and average water temperature in August in Lake Saimaa, Finland (1924–2014) are displayed. Trend lines have been added.
Not applicable
No methodology references available.
Not applicable
The data originate from quality-controlled measurements with long time series. The attribution of an observed increase in water temperature increase to climate change depends on the location, because other effects like increased use of cooling water take place at the same time.
No uncertainty has been specified
For references, please go to https://www.eea.europa.eu/data-and-maps/indicators/water-temperature-2/assessment or scan the QR code.
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