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Indicator Assessment
Passenger transport demand
Passenger transport demand in the EU-28, measured in passenger-kilometres (pkm), reached an all-time high in 2017 (17.3 % higher than in 2000). The growth in demand recorded during previous years continued for the fifth consecutive year. Total passenger transport demand now clearly exceeds the levels seen before the economic recession (8.2 % higher than in 2008).
Since 2010, passenger transport volumes (in pkm) have grown by 9 %. Across the different modes, they have changed as follows:
In absolute terms, passenger cars have accounted for most of the overall increase in passenger transport volumes since 2010, closely followed by aviation. Since 2010, the EU population has grown by 1.6 %, significantly less than the 9 % growth in total passenger transport. In the vast majority of Member States, the demand for passenger transport by car in 2017 was greater than in any preceding year.
Rail passenger traffic volumes have increased steadily since 2009 and slightly outpaced total passenger transport demand growth. However, significant variation exists among EU Member States. Rail demand has grown strongly in most EU countries since 2009, in some cases by 30 % or more. This includes some old Member States such as Luxembourg and the United Kingdom, but also newer Member States such as Czechia and Slovakia. In contrast, other countries recorded stagnating or declining volumes. The decrease has been particularly large in Bulgaria, Greece, Croatia and Slovenia.
Within passenger rail transport, high-speed rail plays an increasingly important role. In 2017, it accounted for 27 % of all passenger rail transport in the EU. In France and Spain, more than half of all passenger rail kilometres were travelled by high-speed rail. This growth goes hand in hand with the expansion of suitable rail infrastructure. However, the bulk of the activity is concentrated in relatively few countries.
Passenger transport by air has increased strongly and more than doubled in volume since 1995. In 2017, aviation accounted for 11 % of all passenger transport, a higher share than in all previous years. It also recorded the strongest year-on-year growth rates among all modes during the last 5 years. In absolute terms, only transport by passenger car saw a stronger increase.
Trends in inland passenger transport demand and gross domestic product (GDP) have decreased in intensity (pkm/EUR) since 2000, with the exception of 2009 for which the impacts of the economic recession are clear. In 2009, the sharp reduction in GDP in the EEA-33 was however still associated with a slight increase in passenger transport volumes compared with previous years, suggesting that passenger transport demand reacted less (and more slowly) to changes in GDP than freight. Since 2012, only small changes in the intensity ration were recorded.
Freight transport demand
Alongside economic growth and expansion, total land freight transport within the EU-28 (road, rail and inland waterways) increased steadily throughout the 1990s and early 2000s, growing by 23 % in the years up to 2007. Between 2000 and 2007, the real average annual growth rate of GDP was slightly more than 2 % in the EU‑28, with higher growth in the EU‑13 than in the EU‑15. This growth took place in the context of continued globalisation, with rising trade volumes both within the EU and with trade partners outside the EU. A sharp fall in freight demand occurred in the years immediately following the economic downturn in 2008. Since then freight volumes have recovered and are now again close to the peak recorded in 2007. In 2017, total land freight transport increased by 4.2 %, compared with 2016.
If the evolution of the intensity of freight transport (tonne kilometres per unit of GDP in constant with 2010 prices) is considered, with 2000 as a benchmark, no major changes could be observed during the last 4 years in the EEA-33 (excluding Liechtenstein). Freight intensity was 5 % below the 2000 level in 2017. While some decoupling could be observed in the EU-15 over the last decade, the rapid growth in tonne kilometres in the newer Member States resulted in a marked increase in freight transport intensity in the EU-13.
The combined share of bus and coach, and rail has been largely flat since 2005 in the EU-28, with a slight downward tendency. The share of bus and coach passenger transport decreased from 10.1 % in 2005 to 8.7 % in 2017, however, rail transport increased from 7.1 to 8 %. Bus and coach transport is a more popular choice in the EU-13 than in EU-15 (15.1 % and 7.6 %, respectively in 2017).
The majority share of freight in the EU-28 is transported by road. Over time, there has been no substantial change in this share at an aggregated EU level. In 2017, 82 % of all freight transport on land was performed by road. This means that road freight has not been reduced relative to other transport modes. Instead, its share has increased over time. This EU-wide increase was driven by a strong increase in the EU-13, where road transport has clearly gained in importance relative to rail transport.
'Passenger transport demand' is defined as the number of passenger kilometres (pkm) travelled every year in a country or group of countries. Inland passenger transport includes transport by passenger car, bus, coach and train.
'Freight transport demand' is defined as the amount of inland tonne-kilometres (tkm) travelled every year in a country or group of countries. Inland freight transport includes transport by road, rail, inland waterway, air and maritime. Transport via rail and inland waterway is based on movements within national territory ('territoriality principle'), regardless of the nationality of the vehicle or vessel; road transport is based on all movements of vehicles registered in the reporting country.
'Modal split' is defined as the proportion of total pkm allocated to different transport modes every year. The modal split of freight transport is defined as the percentage share of modes (road and rail) in total inland transport, including transport by road, rail and inland waterway.
The 'decoupling indicator' is defined as the annual changes in the ratio of pkm/tkm (inland modes) to GDP (in 2010 prices) growth.
The unit used to express passenger transport volume is the passenger-kilometre (pkm), which represents one passenger travelling a distance of 1 km. It is based on transport by car, bus, coach and train. The unit used to express freight transport volume is the tonne-kilometre (tkm), which represents the movement of one tonne over a distance of one kilometre.
Gross domestic product (GDP) is expressed in constant euros, indexed to the year 2010.
Transport demand and GDP are shown as an index (2000=100). The ratio of the former to the latter is indexed to the year t–1 (i.e. annual decoupling/intensity changes) in order to observe changes in the annual intensity of passenger transport demand relative to economic growth (GDP).
The modal split is shown as a percentage (%).
The EU has set itself the objective of decoupling economic growth from transport demand in order to create a more sustainable transport system. This decoupling has been a central theme in EU transport policy and is intended to minimise the negative impacts of transport.
In order to measure the decoupling of passenger demand from economic growth, the volume of passenger transport relative to GDP (i.e. the intensity) is calculated.
The annual pkm/tkm growth rate is therefore compared with the annual GDP growth rate. Relative decoupling occurs when passenger and freight transport demand grows at a rate below that of GDP. Absolute decoupling occurs when passenger and freight transport demand falls and GDP continues to rise or remains constant. If demand and GDP both fall, they remain coupled.
Transport demand and GDP are shown as an index (for freight transport demand: 2000=100; GDP at 2010 prices).
A detailed description of the concepts used and data collected in the transport database can be found inEurostat's concepts and definitions database.
No gap filling is required for this indicator.
No methodology references available.
To understand whether or not transport demand is being decoupled from economic growth, the intensity of transport demand relative to changes in real GDP is analysed. A reduction in intensity should signal the relative decoupling of transport demand from economic growth.
A decoupling indicator analyses pressures on the environment because of changes in the relevant economical variables to which environmental pressures are causally linked. This indicator compares the growth in pkm as a proxy of the pressures on the environment caused by transport. It is considered a good proxy; however, it is known to be inaccurate as pkm/tkm values in isolation do not fully explain the environmental pressures.
Figures on pkm/tkm travelled by air are available as an EU-28 aggregate only. Air pkm/tkm are a provisional estimate for domestic flights and flights between EU countries. Figures for freight transport by road, rail, bus and inland waterway are available separately for all EU-28 Member States. The sources used by the European Commission (DG-MOVE) include national statistics, estimates, the International Transport Forum and Eurostat.
Even if two countries have the same transport intensity, or show the same trend over time, the environmental effects can be different. The link to environmental impact has to be assessed on the basis of the energy consumption and fuels used to satisfy demand and the technology used, in addition to the new infrastructure-related impacts.
For references, please go to https://www.eea.europa.eu/data-and-maps/indicators/passenger-and-freight-transport-demand/assessment-1 or scan the QR code.
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