Indicator Assessment

Glaciers

Indicator Assessment

Prod-ID: IND-95-en

Also known as: CLIM 007

Published 20 Dec 2016 Last modified 04 Oct 2021

10 min read

Topics: Climate change adaptation

This page was archived on 04 Oct 2021 with reason: No more updates will be done

The vast majority of glaciers in the European glacial regions are in retreat. Glaciers in the European Alps have lost approximately half of their volume since 1900, with clear acceleration since the 1980s.
Glacier retreat is expected to continue in the future. It has been estimated that the volume of European glaciers will decline between 22 and 84 % compared with the current situation by 2100 under a moderate greenhouse gas forcing scenario, and between 38 and 89 % under a high forcing scenario.
Glacier retreat contributed to global sea level rise by about 0.8 mm per year in 2003–2009. It also affects freshwater supply and run-off regimes, river navigation, irrigation and power generation. Furthermore, it may cause natural hazards and damage to infrastructure.

This indicator has been archived and will no longer be updated.
Information on the development of glaciers globally and in Europe is available from the indicator "Glaciers" maintained by the Copernicus Climate Change Service: https://climate.copernicus.eu/climate-indicators/glaciers

Fig. 1: Cumulative specific net mass balance of European glaciers

Chart

Chart

Data sources:

Fluctuation of Glaciers Database (FoG) provided by World Glacier Monitoring Service (WGMS)

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Fig. 2: Projected change in the volume of mountain glaciers and ice caps in European glaciated regions

Dashboard

Dashboard

Data sources:

Projected changes in the volume of all mountain glaciers and ice caps in the European glaciated regions provided by University of British Columbia (UBC)

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Past trends

A general loss of glacier mass since the beginning of the measurements has occurred in all European glacier regions, except some glaciers in Norway (Figure 1). The Alps have lost roughly 50 % of their ice mass since 1900 [i]. Norwegian coastal glaciers were expanding and gaining mass up to the end of the 1990s owing to increased winter snowfall on the North Atlantic Coast; now these glaciers are also retreating [ii]. Some ice caps at higher elevations in north-eastern Svalbard, Norway, seem to be increasing in thickness, but estimates for Svalbard as a whole show a declining mass balance [iii]. The centennial retreat of European glaciers is attributed primarily to increased summer temperatures. However, changes in winter precipitation, reduced glacier albedo due to the lack of summer snowfall and various other feedback processes, such as the increasing debris cover on the glacier, can influence the behaviour of glaciers, in particular on regional and decadal scales.

The melting of glaciers is contributing significantly to global sea level rise. For the period 2003–2009, the global contribution was 0.71 ± 0.08 mm per year, accounting for 29 ± 13 % of the observed sea level rise [iv].

Projections

The retreat of European glaciers is projected to continue throughout the 21st century (Figure 2). One study estimates that the volume of European glaciers will decline between 22 and 84 % relative to their extent in 2006 under a moderate greenhouse gas forcing scenario (RCP4.5) and between 38 and 89 % under a high forcing scenario (RCP8.5) (all European regions combined) [v]. The relative volume loss is largest in central Europe (83 ± 10 % for RCP4.5 and 95 ± 4 % for RCP8.5). Similar results were achieved in other studies [vi]. In Norway, nearly all smaller glaciers are projected to disappear and, overall, glacier area as well as volume may be reduced by about one-third by 2100, even under the low SRES B2 emissions scenario [vii].

[i] Michael Zemp et al., ‘Glacier Fluctuations in the European Alps, 1850-2000: An Overview and a Spatiotemporal Analysis of Available Data’, inDarkening Peaks: Glacier Retreat, Science, and Society, ed. Benjamin S. Orlove, Ellen Wiegandt, and Brian H. Luckman (Los Angeles: University of California Press, 2008), 152–67; Michael Zemp et al., ‘Historically Unprecedented Global Glacier Decline in the Early 21st Century’,Journal of Glaciology 61, no. 228 (1 September 2015): 745–62, doi:10.3189/2015JoG15J017; M. Huss, ‘Extrapolating Glacier Mass Balance to the Mountain-Range Scale: The European Alps 1900–2100’,The Cryosphere 6, no. 4 (6 July 2012): 713–27, doi:10.5194/tc-6-713-2012.

[ii] Atle Nesje et al., ‘Norwegian Mountain Glaciers in the Past, Present and Future’,Global and Planetary Change 60, no. 1–2 (January 2008): 10–27, doi:10.1016/j.gloplacha.2006.08.004; Markus Engelhardt, Thomas V. Schuler, and Liss M. Andreassen, ‘Glacier Mass Balance of Norway 1961–2010 Calculated by a Temperature-Index Model’,Annals of Glaciology 54, no. 63 (1 July 2013): 32–40, doi:10.3189/2013AoG63A245; I. Hanssen-Bauer et al., eds.,Klima I Norge 2100. Kunnskapsgrunnlag for Klimatilpasning Oppdatert I 2015 (Climate in Norway 2100. Knowledge Basis for Climate Change Adaptation Updated in 2015) [in Norwegian], NCCS Report, 2/2015 (Norsk klimaservicesenter (NKSS), 2015), http://www.miljodirektoratet.no/20804.

[iii] Suzanne Bevan et al., ‘Positive Mass Balance during the Late 20th Century on Austfonna, Svalbard, Revealed Using Satellite Radar Interferometry’,Annals of Glaciology 46, no. 1 (1 October 2007): 117–22, doi:10.3189/172756407782871477; C. Lang, X. Fettweis, and M. Erpicum, ‘Stable Climate and Surface Mass Balance in Svalbard over 1979-2013 despite the Arctic Warming’,The Cryosphere 9, no. 1 (8 January 2015): 83–101, doi:10.5194/tc-9-83-2015.

[iv] A. S. Gardner et al., ‘A Reconciled Estimate of Glacier Contributions to Sea Level Rise: 2003 to 2009’,Science 340, no. 6134 (17 May 2013): 852–57, doi:10.1126/science.1234532; D. G. Vaughan et al., ‘Observations: Cryosphere’, inClimate Change 2013: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, ed. T. F. Stocker et al. (Cambridge; New York: Cambridge University Press, 2013), 317–82, http://www.climatechange2013.org/images/report/WG1AR5_Chapter04_FINAL.pdf.

[v] Valentina Radić et al., ‘Regional and Global Projections of Twenty-First Century Glacier Mass Changes in Response to Climate Scenarios from Global Climate Models’,Climate Dynamics 42, no. 1–2 (January 2014): 37–58, doi:10.1007/s00382-013-1719-7.

[vi] B. Marzeion, A. H. Jarosch, and M. Hofer, ‘Past and Future Sea-Level Change from the Surface Mass Balance of Glaciers’,The Cryosphere 6, no. 6 (12 November 2012): 1295–1322, doi:10.5194/tc-6-1295-2012; Matthias Huss and Regine Hock, ‘A New Model for Global Glacier Change and Sea-Level Rise’,Frontiers in Earth Science 3 (30 September 2015): 54, doi:10.3389/feart.2015.00054.

[vii] Nesje et al., ‘Norwegian Mountain Glaciers in the Past, Present and Future’.

Supporting information

Indicator definition

Cumulative specific net mass balance of European glaciers
Projected changes in the volume of all mountain glaciers and ice caps in the European glaciated regions

Units

Mass balance (m water equivalent)
Volume (km³)

Rationale

Justification for indicator selection

Glaciers are particularly sensitive to changes in the global climate because their surface temperature is close to the freezing/melting point. When the loss of ice, mainly from melting and calving in summer, is larger than the accumulation from snowfall in winter, the mass balance of the glacier turns negative and the glacier shrinks.

Glaciers are an important freshwater resource and act as ‘water towers’ for lower lying regions. The water from melting glaciers contributes to water flow in rivers during summer months and thus helps maintain water levels for irrigation, hydropower production, cooling water and navigation. The effects of a reduction in glaciers are, however, complex and vary from location to location. Glacier melting also contributes to global sea level rise.

Scientific references

No rationale references available

Policy context and targets

Context description

In April 2013, the European Commission (EC) presented the EU Adaptation Strategy Package. This package consists of the EU Strategy on adaptation to climate change (COM/2013/216 final) and a number of supporting documents. The overall aim of the EU Adaptation Strategy is to contribute to a more climate-resilient Europe.

One of the objectives of the EU Adaptation Strategy is Better informed decision-making, which will be achieved by bridging the knowledge gap and further developing the European climate adaptation platform (Climate-ADAPT) as the ‘one-stop shop’ for adaptation information in Europe. Climate-ADAPT has been developed jointly by the EC and the EEA to share knowledge on (1) observed and projected climate change and its impacts on environmental and social systems and on human health, (2) relevant research, (3) EU, transnational, national and subnational adaptation strategies and plans, and (4) adaptation case studies.

Further objectives include Promoting adaptation in key vulnerablesectors through climate-proofing EU sector policies and Promoting action by Member States. Most EU Member States have already adopted national adaptation strategies and many have also prepared action plans on climate change adaptation. The EC also supports adaptation in cities through the Covenant of Mayors for Climate and Energy initiative.

In September 2016, the EC presented an indicative roadmap for the evaluation of the EU Adaptation Strategy by 2018.

In November 2013, the European Parliament and the European Council adopted the 7^th EU Environment Action Programme (7^th EAP) to 2020, ‘Living well, within the limits of our planet’. The 7^th EAP is intended to help guide EU action on environment and climate change up to and beyond 2020. It highlights that ‘Action to mitigate and adapt to climate change will increase the resilience of the Union’s economy and society, while stimulating innovation and protecting the Union’s natural resources.’ Consequently, several priority objectives of the 7^th EAP refer to climate change adaptation.

Targets

No targets have been specified.

Methodology

Methodology for indicator calculation

Various methods are used to estimate mass balances. A literature overview can be found under http://wgms.ch/data_guidelines/.

Projections of volume changes are based on melt in response to transient, spatially differentiated twenty-first century projections of temperature and precipitation from ten global climate models.

Methodology for gap filling

Not applicable

Methodology references

No methodology references available.

Uncertainties

Methodology uncertainty

Not applicable

Data sets uncertainty

Data on the cryosphere vary significantly with regard to availability and quality. Snow and ice cover have been monitored globally since satellite measurements started in the 1970s. Improved technology allows for more detailed observations and observations of a higher resolution. High-quality long-term data are also available on glaciers throughout Europe.

Continuous efforts are being made to improve knowledge of the cryosphere. Scenarios for the future development of key components of the cryosphere have recently become available from the CMIP5 project, which has provided climate change projections for the IPCC AR5. Owing to their economic importance, considerable efforts have also been devoted to improving real-time monitoring of snow cover and sea ice.