Country profile - Future developments (United Kingdom)

Attitudes to the Environment

There is a risk of lack of public engagement with and experience of the natural world, especially for younger, urban generations, leading to a reduced concern over the environment.
By 2011, the UK is expected to return to economic growth and expand by 2.5 per cent (IMF 2010 – July Data). A renewed period of strong and sustained economic growth could reinforce over-consumption and erode a shift towards more sustainable lifestyles and consumption patterns.

Energy and Resources

Demand for water is extremely high leading to concerns over maintaining the water resources available for people and the environment.

Clean technologies such as electric motors and solar photovoltaic are highly dependent on the availability of rare earth elements (REEs). Demand for REEs is forecasted to grow by 65 per cent until 2012 (2008 levels).

Until 2030, demand for sustainable materials will continue to increase, leading to greater competition for bio-resources.

The utilisation of waste as a resource will continue to diversify. For example energy from waste is expected to account for 25 per cent of municipal waste by 2020 compared to 10 per cent in 2007 (SITA 2008). Biomass-fuelled technologies could eventually provide up to 30 per cent of the UK’s renewable electricity and heat generation (SITA 2008). http://www.ebw-uk.com/uk_waste_industry_market_info.pdf 

Adaptation and policy measures taken in other sectors (e.g. expansion of biofuels, utilisation of biomass), will be at increasing risk of being in conflict with conservation and biodiversity objectives

Evolving Land-Use Patterns and Priorities

Food production has widespread impacts on ecosystems and land-use. In the long-term, competition for land and pressures to safeguard the environment will grow, increasing support for novel agricultural systems that use resources and land more efficiently and sustainably.
As pressures upon, and conflicts around, land use increase (energy vs. food production, agriculture vs. urbanisation), policy mechanisms to help identify priorities, which reflect changing regional and global demands, will become more important. 

Nano- and Bio-technology Revolution

The growth in the use of nanoparticles could lead to nanopollution and new challenges for waste water management, and potentially new and unknown risks to both human health and the environment.
R&D in biotechnology will enable the development of new ‘smart’ and sustainable materials. The monitoring and life-cycle evaluation of these new technologies, including GMOs, will be vital to ensure that they are adequately tested for environmental impacts.

New Patterns of Pollution

Although significant reductions in emissions for many major pollutants have taken place or are planned, risks remain in a range of areas, including excess acidification and eutrophication as well as pollution driven by low-carbon technologies, renewables, and nanotechnology.
Globally, rising energy demand, population growth and urbanisation will continue to increase the risk of widespread pollution. Urbanisation will place further pressures on sewage infrastructure and water demand, leading to higher levels of artificial fertilisation in aquatic environments. Climate change effects will increase levels of air pollution and exaggerate the impact of toxic chemicals on the environment.

Climate Change 

According to the central estimate in the UK Climate Change Predictions (2009), summer average temperature in England will increase by 2.5ºC until 2050 (medium emissions scenario). Over the coming decades: the frequency and intensity of storms are likely to increase; there will be more areas affected by drought and water scarcity; there will be more and hotter heat waves in temperate zones; ecosystems will be affected and biodiversity will be hit; certain diseases could become more common; sea levels are likely to rise (also level of shoreline retreat); rainfall patterns will change (more in winter, less in summer) and there will be increased ocean acidification.

The UK increasingly relies on overseas manufacturing to meet growing consumer demand. This could continue to cause an “off-shoring” of GHG emissions and other environmental impacts through the consumption of products and services produced outside the UK.