GHG emissions from EU’s plastics value chain

In 2022, the estimated total GHG emissions of the European plastics value chain were 193 million tonnes of CO₂ equivalent.

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The total GHG emissions from EU’s plastics value chain for 2020 were 191 Mtonnes of CO₂equivalent. For comparison, the total annual GHG emissions from Belgium were 123 Mtonnes (2019).

In 2018, the year for which we have such data, the majority, 63%, of the greenhouse gas emissions in the European Union plastics value chain were from plastics production. Converting polymers into products accounts for 22%, and plastic waste treatment at end-of-life adds another 15%, mainly due to incineration.

The total GHG emissions mimic the similar pattern of the total plastics converters demand. There has been a drop of emissions from highest (2018) 204 Mtonnes of CO2 equivalent to about 193 Mtonnes of CO₂ equivalent (2022). The trend between the converters demand and the GHG emissions is not completely linear because of a higher amount/share of plastic waste being incinerated in 2022.

The European Commission aims to achieve carbon neutrality by 2050, and the EU 2020 New Circular Economy Action Plan highlights the need for measures to enhance circularity and mitigate the environmental effects of plastic. The plastics value chain is both very diverse and complex, as well as globally spread, hence attempts to map material flows and related GHG emissions for the total plastics value chain globally and EU-wise are scarce.

Despite the limitations and uncertainties of the model and data sources (see ETC/WMGE Report 3/2021), it can be concluded that there is a significant untapped potential to reduce the CO₂ emissions in the plastics value chain. Higher recycling rates would contribute to CO₂ emission reductions because (1) if plastic waste is recycled instead of incinerated, CO₂ emissions related to incineration are avoided; and (2) recycled outputs can replace the production of primary raw materials and therefore avoid the corresponding greenhouse gas emissions of these processes.

Definition

The total GHG emissions of the plastics value chain (EU, 2014-2022)

Methodology

GHG emissions caused by the European plastics value chain are estimated using a ‘bottom-up’ approach. It starts from plastic production, consumption and waste management data. For each lifecycle step, GHG emission factors are then attributed to the main flows and processes, which then allow to calculate the emissions throughout the value chain. The use phase was not analysed as part of the models. Avoided emissions, both for output products from incineration and recycling, are also excluded from the scope. GHG emissions are expressed assuming a 100-year time horizon for the cumulated integration of the IR (infrared radiation) of the emitted GHGs, applying the IPCC 2013 methodology.

The reported GHG emissions always refer to a combination of direct, and indirect and avoided emissions, regardless the place where these emissions occur, so they should be considered as global emissions, contributing to the environmental burden embedded in the plastics.

Metadata

Sources: Multiple data sources compiled in the Eionet Report ETC/WMGE 2021/3

Unit: Mtonnes of CO2 equivalent per year

Temporal coverage: 2014-2022

Geographic coverage: EU

Data analysis

The model and collected data have limitations, both with respect to the approach and the scope. For reasons of clarity, these limitations are listed explicitly in the Eionet Report – ETC/WMGE 2021/3and further elaborated on in (Tenhunen-Lunkka et al., 2023) based on the report. Data is not uniformly collected across EU, it is collected from several data sources

The total primary production of polymers in the EU is estimated at 61.8 Mt per year. There is, however, a large gap between the volume of plastic used in products each year, 51.2 Mt, and the annual volume of collected plastic waste, 29.1 Mt (2018). There are several reasons for this imbalance: products have variable lifetimes, not all waste is collected properly, and not all plastic products produced in the EU are sold, used, and discarded in the EU itself.

Additional reading

ETC/WMGE Report 3/2021: Greenhouse gas emissions and natural capital implications of plastics (including biobased plastics)

This estimation is based on a model that was built for the Eionet Report – ETC/WMGE 2021/3 Greenhouse gas emissions and natural capital implications of plastics (including biobased plastics). The data is enriched on annual plastics demand and end-of-life data extracted from Plastics Europe’s annual Plastics facts between 2014-2024.
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ETC/WMGE Report 3/2021: Greenhouse gas emissions and natural capital implications of plastics (including biobased plastics)
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Tenhunen-Lunkka, A., Rommens, T., Vanderreydt, I. et al. Greenhouse Gas Emission Reduction Potential of European Union’s Circularity Related Targets for Plastics. Circ.Econ.Sust. 3, 475–510 (2023). https://doi.org/10.1007/s43615-022-00192-8
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