Land use - Outlook 2020 (Spain)

Forecasts indicate that Spain's resident population will grow by 8.4 % in the period up to The most recent advances in population projections made by the INE ("Short term population projection in Spain from 2010 to 2020" Press Release of October 7, 2010) state that the population will grow by 2.7% until 2020 with the current demographic trends, compared with 14.8% growth over the last decade.

Spain will keep an annual rate of population growth in the coming years less than 0.35% with a slight downward trend. After some years of high population growth, Spain will reach just over 47 million people in 2020, with the current demographic trends. Thus, in the period 2010-2020 the resident population will grow by 1.2 million (2.7%) compared to the 5.9 million increase (14.8%) in the first decade of the century. On annual average, population growth would be 124,591 inhabitants, lower than 593,931 in the past decade.

The foreign population input may diminish over the next few years due to the economic crisis and to the growth of unemployment, as well as a result of the immigration restriction measures enforced throughout Europe, but it is estimated to hold around 250,000 people annually in the next decade.

Changes in land use will be conditioned by initiatives deriving from the various government plans and programmes implemented. Possible outcomes include an increase in artificial surfaces due to creation of transport, technological and industrial infrastructure, an increase in forest area, and development of new agricultural crops. The principal initiatives are as follows:

• Transport Infrastructure Plan: Approved in 2005 and assigned a medium-to-long-term horizon (2005–2020). It lays down the basic guidelines for action on matters of infrastructure and transport for which the State has jurisdiction.
• Rural development planning: Law 45/2007, of 13 December, establishes the Sustainable Rural Development Programme as the principal planning instrument applied to the rural environment.
• Forestry planning: The Forestry Plan forms part of the Spanish Forestry Strategy and is one of the instruments used to implement Spain's forestry policy. It has a 30-year horizon (2002–2032) and will be reviewed twice during its time in force.

Sources:

• Spanish National Statistics Institute. INEbase / Demography and population / Population figures and Demographic Censuses. http://www.ine.es/inebmenu/mnu_cifraspob.htm
• MARM. Spanish Forestry Strategy and Spanish Forestry Plan.  http://www.mma.es/portal/secciones/biodiversidad/montes_politica_forestal/estrategia_monte/index.htm
• Ambienta (magazine published by the Spanish Ministry of the Environment and Rural and Marine Affairs), 2009. 45-Million-Tree Plan. Issue no. 87, April, pp. 2–5. http://www.mma.es/secciones/biblioteca_publicacion/publicaciones/revista_ambienta/n87/pdf/02planarboles872009.pdf
• Spanish Ministry of Public Works. 2005–2020 Strategic Transport Infrastructure Plan. http://www.fomento.es/MFOM/LANG_CASTELLANO/DIRECCIONES_GENERALES/CARRETERAS/PEIT/