Climate change mitigation - Outlook 2020 (Iceland)

Technical possibilities of mitigating greenhouse gas emissions in different sectors of the Icelandic economy were explored by a committee of experts in a report published in 2009 (1).
The bulk of greenhouse gas emissions in Iceland comes from industrial processes (41 % in 2008) and energy (43 %), followed by agriculture (12 %) and waste (4 %). The industrial process emissions are mainly from primary aluminium production and production of ferro-silicon. These industries, which utilise electricity from hydroelectric and geothermal energy resources, will become part of the European Union Emissions Trading Scheme (EU-ETS) in 2013. Mitigation methods that are technically feasible before 2020 distribute unevenly between sectors, and the cost of mitigation differs substantially. These options are currently being weighed by a committee appointed by the minister for the environment to prepare an implementation plan for greenhouse gas mitigation in Iceland.

Global warming and its effects in Iceland (2) have been described by a scientific committee, appointed by the minister for the environment, in a report published in 2008 (2). The main findings are that average warming in Iceland until the middle of the century will be around 0.2 °C/decade and that precipitation will increase by 2‑3 % for each degree Centigrade. The frequency of rainy days and the intensity of precipitation will increase. The number of cold spells during winter will decrease and heatwaves during summer will become more common. Rapid retreat of glaciers is expected during the 21st century resulting in increased run-off until the middle of the century when run-off starts to decrease because of continuous thinning and recession of the glaciers. This will result in significant land rise with increased volcanic activity and glacial river beds will change. The effects on marine life will depend on how ocean currents, mixing processes and borders between warm and cold currents will react to climate change. Warmer climate will have a positive effect on the potential of terrestrial ecosystems to sequester carbon in soil and vegetation. Changes in vegetation, e.g. expansion to higher elevations and increased natural birch forests, will have an effect on insects and birdlife. A positive effect is expected on the potential of growing crops while pests, plant diseases, storms and sea-level rise can pose threats. Possible threats to human health imply increased risks of allergies and communicable diseases, but the impacts will probably be minor given the current strength of the health-care system. The effects described above apply to the remainder of this century and beyond and the intensity will depend on how emissions of greenhouse gases will evolve in coming decades. Some of the effects are likely to be already visible in 2020.

References

(1) Mitigating greenhouse gas emissions in different sectors. Report in Icelandic with English summary. http://www.umhverfisraduneyti.is/media/PDF_skrar/Loftslag.pdf 

(2) Climate Change and consequences, Science comittee. Report in Icelandic. http://www.umhverfisraduneyti.is/media/PDF_skrar/vedurfarsbreytingar_lokautg.pdf