Emissions

Indicator 2: Air emissions

Policy and targets

Air emissions from transport contribute significantly to climate change, acidification, photochemical pollution (ground-level ozone) and poor urban air quality. Airborne pollutants have serious adverse effects on human health and ecosystems, and damage building materials.

At the international level, three Conventions are in place to curb climate change, acidification, eutrophication and air pollution from human activities, including transport:

• The Kyoto Protocol, under the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC). Industrialised countries agreed to reduce their emissions of six greenhouse gases by 5 % from 1990 levels by 2008-2012. The EU is committed to a reduction of 8 %. In 1998 the EU Member States agreed a system of . burden. (or . target. ) sharing, allowing some Member States an increase in greenhouse gas emissions, while others are committed to larger reductions than 8 %. The protocol was adopted in 1997 and has been signed by many countries but since only a few have ratified it, it is not yet in force. The Protocol does not address greenhouse gas emissions from international marine and air transport.
• The Convention on Long-Range Transboundary Air Pollution, under the United Nations Economic Commission for Europe (UNECE/CLRTAP) and parallel Community initiatives, aimed at curbing acidification, eutrophication and ground-level ozone. Under CLRTAP several Protocols are in force for European countries, including the EU and its Member States, requiring reductions of emissions of SO₂, NMVOCs and NO_x, expressed as national emission ceilings or percentage reductions. The EU also has set targets within the 5EAP. In May 1999 the Commission presented a proposal for a Directive on national emission ceilings (NECD) for the same pollutants and also for NH₃ (of which transport is not a source), which are stricter than the current agreed targets. The proposal has not yet been adopted by the Council. Parallel with CLRTAP, draft national emission ceilings for many European countries, including EU Member States, were agreed in September 1999 in a new multi-pollutant Protocol for these four pollutants. This Protocol was adopted on 1 December 1999 (UNECE, 1999). For most EU Member States the targets are less strict than those in the proposed Directive.
• The International Convention for the Prevention of Pollution from Ships (MARPOL): a new protocol to reduce pollution emissions (NO_x, SO₂) from ships was proposed in 1997, but this has not yet been adopted.
• Community legislation dealing with gaseous emission standards for aircraft are based on the certification standards for CO, NO_x and HC set by the International Civil Aviation Organisation (ICAO). More stringent emission standards are currently being investigated by the Committee on Aviation and Environmental Protection (CAEP). The Commission has also announced its intention to complement ICAO NO_x standards with other measures (CEC, 1999d).

All the international emission reduction targets in Table 1.1 apply to total national emissions. Countries are responsible for allocating emission reductions to sectors, such as energy, industry and transport.

Community policies to curb air pollution from road traffic have been framed around the Auto-Oil Programme I (which is now completed) and the Auto-Oil Programme II, with its proposed follow-up programme . Clean Air for Europe. (CAFÉ).

At the Member State level, Austria (BMU, 1995) and the Netherlands (VROM, 1998) have introduced emission-reduction targets for NO_x from both road and non-road transport (some 75 % reduction from 1985 levels by 2010). Targets for the reduction of NMVOC emissions have also been adopted (75 % reduction from 1988 levels by 2007 in both Member States. In the Netherlands the government has also adopted a CO₂ emission reduction target for road transport (10 % by 2010 from 1986 levels).

Findings

CO₂
Emissions of CO₂ from transport in the EU increased from 0.6 to 0.8 bn tonnes (30 %) in the period 1985-1996 (an increase from 20 to 26 % of total anthropogenic emissions). This makes the transport sector the fastest growing source of emissions. For comparison, the energy sector contributed 35 % of total emissions in 1996, and the industry sector 17 %.

Road transport accounts for 85 % of all transport CO₂ emissions. Aviation is the second largest transport CO₂ source (12 %). The upward trend in CO₂ emissions from transport is due to growing traffic volumes, as there has been very little change in average energy use per vehicle-kilometre (see Indicator 20).

Figure1.5: Emissions of CO₂ per sector (EU 15)

Source: Eurostat

Since the Community target for greenhouse gases under the Kyoto Protocol cannot be allocated to CO₂ only (see Table 1.1), nor to a specific sector, it is difficult to benchmark transport CO₂ emissions against this target. However, the current trends and future outlooks are worrying. Projected EU CO₂ emissions for 2010 based on the EEA. s pre-Kyoto baseline scenario (including only policies and measures in place in 1997) are about 8 % above the 1990 level (EEA, 1999). Emissions from transport are forecast to increase by 39 % above the 1990 level by 2010. This shows the need for further policies and measures to achieve the Kyoto Protocol target, for all sectors, including transport.

NMVOCs
Emissions of NMVOCs from transport fell from 6.3 m tonnes in 1990 (45 % of total emissions) to 4.8 m tonnes in 1996 (35 % of the total). These reductions resulted from the introduction of catalysts on new petrol-engined cars and stricter regulations on emissions from diesel vehicles (see Indicator 21). Industry contributed 7 % of the total in 1996, the energy sector less than 1 %. The projected EU15 total NMVOC emissions from transport for 2010, based on a baseline scenario, are about 67 % below the 1990 level (EEA, 1999). Whether the current and proposed/draft targets for the EU Member States for national emissions will be achieved by 2010 will depend on the implementation of the policies and measures which have been adopted, by all relevant sectors (transport, industry, energy, households), and the introduction and implementation of additional policies and measures.

Figure 1.6: Emissions of NMVOCs per sector (EU 15)

Source: EEA-ETC/AE
Note: The sector 'other' includes mainly emissions from the use of solvents within industry and households

NO_x
Emissions of NO_x from transport fell from 7.1 to 6.2 m tonnes in the period 1990-1996, a 13 % reduction. These reductions resulted from the introduction of catalysts on new petrol-engined cars and stricter regulations for emissions from diesel vehicles (see Indicator 21). The contribution to total emissions increased only very slightly (from 54 to 55 %) over the same period. The energy sector contributed some 19 % of the total in 1996, the industry sector 14 %.

Figure 1.7: Emissions of NO_x per sector (EU 15)

Source: EEA-ETC/AE

The first CLRTAP Nitrogen Oxide Protocol target (stabilising to 1987 emissions by 1994) was achieved by the EU as a whole and by most Member States. However, the fifth environmental action programme target of a 30 % reduction by 2000 with respect to 1990 will not be achieved. The projected EU15 total NO_x emissions from transport for 2010 based on a baseline scenario are about 43 % below the 1990 level (EEA, 1999). Meeting the targets of the European Commission. s 1999 proposal for a Directive on national emission ceilings would require further decreases of emissions from the transport and other sectors.

SO₂
Transport contributed less than 10 % of the total SO₂ emissions in 1996, the energy sector 62 % and industry 20 %. Total emissions of SO₂ in the EU fell from 16.3 to 9.4 m tonnes between 1990 and 1996 (a reduction of 42 %). International ship traffic is responsible for most of the transport contribution to SO₂ emissions, due to the use of very high sulphur content (around 10 %) fuels. Future actions to abate SO₂ emissions from shipping our outlined in the Communication on the Development of Short Sea Shipping in Europe (CEC, 1999c). The contribution of marine transport to acidifying emissions is discussed further in Box 1.1.

Figure 1.8: Emissions of SO₂ per sector (EU 15)

Source: EEA-ETC/AE

Future work

• National reporting often provides incomplete time series for the period 1980-1990 and this data has therefore been excluded from this analysis. Data for the period 1990 to 1996 is more complete and presents fewer inconsistencies. The quality of the indicator would be enhanced by improved national reporting (in particular for the period 1980-1990 and onwards for some Member States and pollutants).
• National estimates should be better documented, so as to identify possible inconsistencies. Consistent estimation methods should be used by Member States for the complete time series. A simple, consistent methodology should be developed to compare national estimates with centrally produced estimates prepared for all Member States. The results of such comparisons should be communicated to Member States to improve the consistency, transparency, comparability and reliability of national estimates, and ensure that central estimates are converging with national estimates.